The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED

TED
14 Jun 202314:58
EducationalLearning
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TLDRThis speech explores the evolution of global power dynamics, transitioning from a bipolar world dominated by the US and the Soviet Union to a unipolar era led by the US alone, and now to a complex, leaderless world. It discusses the impact of Russia's decline, China's integration into global institutions, and the backlash against globalization in wealthy democracies. The speaker predicts three emerging orders: a unipolar security order led by the US, a multipolar economic order, and a digital order shaped by tech companies with immense power, posing questions about their responsibility and the future of democracy.

Takeaways
  • 🌍 The world has evolved from a bipolar system with the US and the Soviet Union to a unipolar system dominated by the US after the Soviet Union's collapse.
  • 🇺🇸 The US was once the sole superpower, shaping global institutions and exerting significant influence worldwide.
  • 🔄 About 15 years ago, the US began to step back from its role as the world's policeman, and other countries started to assert their power and set their own rules.
  • 🇷🇺 Russia's decline and lack of integration into Western institutions has led to its current state of discontent and geopolitical tension.
  • 🇨🇳 China's integration into US-led institutions did not lead to its westernization, causing discomfort in the US as China maintains its distinct identity.
  • 🏭 Globalization has left many citizens in wealthy democracies feeling left behind, leading to a perception of illegitimate governments and leaders.
  • 💥 Today's world is leaderless, with geopolitical tensions often stemming from the three main issues mentioned above.
  • 🕊️ The future world order is likely to be neither bipolar nor unipolar, but rather a complex interplay of different orders.
  • 🛡️ The current global security order is unipolar, with the US and its allies being the most powerful players.
  • 💼 The global economic order is multipolar, with the US, China, and other countries sharing power and influence.
  • 🌐 The emerging digital order is not governed by governments but by technology companies, which wield significant power in shaping society and politics.
  • 🛑 Technology companies have a responsibility to act accountably, especially as they release new AI technologies and collect vast amounts of data on individuals and environments.
  • 🚀 The US has transitioned from exporting democracy to exporting tools that can undermine it, raising questions about the role of technology leaders in this process.
Q & A

  • What was the world order like for people over 45 years old when they were growing up?

    -People over 45 grew up in a bipolar world dominated by two superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union, each controlling one side of the world.

  • How did the world order change for those under 45 years old?

    -For those under 45, they grew up in a unipolar world after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the United States emerging as the sole superpower.

  • What are the three main reasons for the current geopolitical tension and conflict according to the speaker?

    -The three main reasons are: 1) Russia's decline and lack of integration into Western institutions, 2) China's integration into US-led institutions without adopting American values, and 3) the feeling of being left behind by globalization among citizens in the United States and other wealthy democracies.

  • What does the speaker predict about the future world order?

    -The speaker predicts that we will not have a bipolar, unipolar, or multipolar world order, but rather three different overlapping orders with the digital order having immense importance.

  • What is the current state of the global security order?

    -The global security order is currently unipolar, with the United States and its allies being the most powerful players, capable of projecting military power worldwide.

  • How does the global economic order differ from the security order?

    -The global economic order is multipolar, with power shared among different countries, including the United States, China, the European Union, and others, each with significant influence.

  • What is the role of technology companies in the emerging digital order?

    -Technology companies are not run by governments but are becoming increasingly powerful, shaping our identities, communication, and even national security through their platforms and tools.

  • What impact did technology companies have on Ukraine's ability to defend against Russian cyber attacks?

    -Technology companies provided Ukraine with the tools necessary to defend against Russian cyber attacks, enabling communication between leaders, generals, and soldiers on the front lines.

  • How do social media platforms influence society and politics today?

    -Social media platforms can promote disinformation and conspiracy theories, influencing political outcomes and even inciting riots, as seen in events like the Capitol insurrection and other global incidents.

  • What is the potential consequence if technology companies align with governments in China and the United States?

    -If technology companies align with governments, it could lead to a technology cold war, splitting the digital order into two, which may erode global cooperation and competition.

  • What concerns does the speaker raise about the accountability of technology companies?

    -The speaker raises concerns about the accountability of technology companies in releasing powerful artificial intelligence, collecting unprecedented amounts of data, and perpetuating advertising models that may drive societal division and misinformation.

Outlines
00:00
🌏 Shifts in Global Power Dynamics

The speaker begins by reflecting on the historical shifts in global power structures, moving from a bipolar world dominated by the US and the Soviet Union to a unipolar one with the US as the sole superpower post-Soviet collapse. The narrative then transitions to the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape, marked by the US's reluctance to maintain its global leadership roles and the rise of other nations challenging the status quo. Key factors contributing to this shift include Russia's decline and resentment, China's integration yet divergence from Western expectations, and the widespread sentiment of being left behind by globalization, particularly in Western democracies. The speaker suggests that these factors are the primary drivers of today's geopolitical tensions and posits that we are now in a leaderless world, hinting at a future world order that may not fit traditional models.

05:04
🛡️ The Current Unipolar Security Order and Economic Multipolarity

This paragraph delves into the current state of global security and economic orders. It acknowledges the US's unchallenged military might and its ability to project power globally, while also noting the growing military capabilities of China, primarily in Asia. The speaker discusses the interdependence of the US and China economically, highlighting the highest level of trade relations in history between the two nations. The economic order is described as multipolar, with the EU, India, and Japan also playing significant roles. The paragraph also touches on the tensions between the security and economic orders, with the US using its national security leverage to influence global economies and China using its commercial power to shape diplomatic relations. The speaker introduces the concept of a third, emerging digital order that will significantly impact our lives.

10:05
🌐 The Emergence of a Digital Order and Its Implications

The final paragraph focuses on the impending digital order, which is not governed by nation-states but by technology companies. The speaker emphasizes the crucial role these companies have played in recent conflicts, such as providing Ukraine with the tools to defend against cyber attacks and maintain communication during war. The paragraph also addresses the influence of social media platforms on societal issues, such as the spread of disinformation and conspiracy theories, and their impact on political events. The speaker raises concerns about the power held by these technology companies, questioning their intentions and the potential consequences of their actions. The paragraph concludes with a call to question the role of technology in shaping our identities and the global stage, and a reflection on the responsibilities of these companies as they wield unprecedented power.

Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bipolar World
A bipolar world refers to a global order dominated by two superpowers. In the context of the video, it describes the geopolitical landscape during the speaker's youth, where the United States and the Soviet Union were the two major powers setting the rules and influencing global affairs. This concept is foundational to understanding the shift from a simple to a more complex world order.
💡Unipolar World
A unipolar world is characterized by a single superpower that exerts significant influence over global affairs. Post the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States found itself as the sole superpower, shaping international norms and institutions. The video discusses this period as a transition from the bipolar world and sets the stage for the current complexities.
💡Global Security Order
The global security order pertains to the arrangement of military power and alliances that ensure global stability. The script highlights the United States and its allies as the dominant players in this order, emphasizing the US's unique capability to project military power worldwide, which is a key factor in maintaining the current unipolar security structure.
💡Multipolar World
A multipolar world is one where power is distributed among multiple nations, none of which hold absolute dominance. In the economic context discussed in the video, the script points out that while the US is a robust economy, it shares power with other economic giants like China, the EU, and others, creating a more balanced and competitive global economic order.
💡Geopolitical Tension
Geopolitical tension refers to the strain and conflict between nations due to various factors such as power dynamics, economic interests, and ideological differences. The video attributes over 90 percent of current global headlines to tensions arising from the shift in world order and the complexities that have emerged from the decline of the bipolar system.
💡Globalization
Globalization is the process of increased interconnectedness and interdependence among countries for trade, investment, and cultural exchange. The script discusses the negative perception of globalization among citizens in wealthy democracies who felt left behind, leading to a questioning of government legitimacy and contributing to the current leaderless world.
💡Technology Companies
Technology companies are central to the emerging digital order discussed in the video. They are not just businesses but have become influential actors that provide critical tools for defense and communication, as illustrated by their role in supporting Ukraine during the war and their impact on political discourse through social media platforms.
💡Digital Order
The digital order represents the new realm of global influence driven by technology and the internet. The video emphasizes that this order is not governed by traditional governments but by tech companies. The digital order's impact on society, politics, and global governance is a significant theme, with the potential to shape a new form of globalization or lead to a split, creating a technology cold war.
💡Algorithm
An algorithm, in the context of the video, refers to the set of rules or processes that technology companies use to determine content display and user experience on digital platforms. The script suggests that algorithms now play a crucial role in shaping our identities and the information we consume, thereby wielding significant power in the digital order.
💡Techno-Polar Order
A techno-polar order is a hypothetical scenario where technology companies become the dominant global actors, surpassing the influence of traditional governments. The video raises the prospect of such an order emerging if digital platforms continue to grow in power without sufficient oversight or if they erode the capacity of governments to govern effectively.
💡Accountability
Accountability in the video refers to the responsibility and obligation of technology companies to act in ways that are transparent and have positive societal impacts. The speaker questions the current practices of these companies, particularly their advertising models that may drive hate and misinformation, and calls for greater accountability in their use of AI and data.
Highlights

The world has transitioned from a bipolar world dominated by the US and Soviets to a unipolar world with the US as the sole superpower, and now to a more complex, leaderless world.

Three key factors have led to the current geopolitical situation: 1) Russia's decline and anger at not being integrated into Western institutions, 2) China's integration into US-led institutions but maintaining its own identity, and 3) the feeling of being left behind by globalization among citizens in wealthy democracies.

Over 90% of current geopolitical tensions and conflicts stem from these three factors.

The world is moving towards three different overlapping orders - a global security order, a global economic order, and an emerging digital order.

The global security order remains unipolar, with the US and its allies as the most powerful players.

China is growing its military capabilities in Asia, causing concern among US allies in the region.

The global economic order is multipolar, with power shared among the US, China, EU, India, and Japan.

US-China trade relations are at an all-time high, despite political tensions.

Tensions exist between the security and economic orders, as the US uses its power to influence global economies and China tries to align the world diplomatically through its commercial position.

The emerging digital order is not run by governments but by technology companies, which have immense power and influence over our lives.

Technology companies played a crucial role in Ukraine's defense against Russian cyberattacks and enabled communication during the war.

Social media platforms and their algorithms have a significant impact on shaping our identities, opinions, and societal divisions.

The future of the digital order depends on whether technology companies align with governments or maintain global business models, potentially leading to a technology cold war, digital globalization, or a techno-polar order.

The unprecedented power of technology companies raises questions about their accountability, use of artificial intelligence, handling of data, and role in spreading hate and misinformation.

The US has shifted from being the principal exporter of democracy to exporting tools that can undermine it, with technology leaders having a significant influence on this trajectory.

The speech raises important questions about the role and responsibility of technology companies in shaping our world and the need for them to act accountably.

Transcripts

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