The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED
TLDRThis speech explores the evolution of global power dynamics, transitioning from a bipolar world dominated by the US and the Soviet Union to a unipolar era led by the US alone, and now to a complex, leaderless world. It discusses the impact of Russia's decline, China's integration into global institutions, and the backlash against globalization in wealthy democracies. The speaker predicts three emerging orders: a unipolar security order led by the US, a multipolar economic order, and a digital order shaped by tech companies with immense power, posing questions about their responsibility and the future of democracy.
Takeaways
- 🌍 The world has evolved from a bipolar system with the US and the Soviet Union to a unipolar system dominated by the US after the Soviet Union's collapse.
- 🇺🇸 The US was once the sole superpower, shaping global institutions and exerting significant influence worldwide.
- 🔄 About 15 years ago, the US began to step back from its role as the world's policeman, and other countries started to assert their power and set their own rules.
- 🇷🇺 Russia's decline and lack of integration into Western institutions has led to its current state of discontent and geopolitical tension.
- 🇨🇳 China's integration into US-led institutions did not lead to its westernization, causing discomfort in the US as China maintains its distinct identity.
- 🏭 Globalization has left many citizens in wealthy democracies feeling left behind, leading to a perception of illegitimate governments and leaders.
- 💥 Today's world is leaderless, with geopolitical tensions often stemming from the three main issues mentioned above.
- 🕊️ The future world order is likely to be neither bipolar nor unipolar, but rather a complex interplay of different orders.
- 🛡️ The current global security order is unipolar, with the US and its allies being the most powerful players.
- 💼 The global economic order is multipolar, with the US, China, and other countries sharing power and influence.
- 🌐 The emerging digital order is not governed by governments but by technology companies, which wield significant power in shaping society and politics.
- 🛑 Technology companies have a responsibility to act accountably, especially as they release new AI technologies and collect vast amounts of data on individuals and environments.
- 🚀 The US has transitioned from exporting democracy to exporting tools that can undermine it, raising questions about the role of technology leaders in this process.
Q & A
What was the world order like for people over 45 years old when they were growing up?
-People over 45 grew up in a bipolar world dominated by two superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union, each controlling one side of the world.
How did the world order change for those under 45 years old?
-For those under 45, they grew up in a unipolar world after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the United States emerging as the sole superpower.
What are the three main reasons for the current geopolitical tension and conflict according to the speaker?
-The three main reasons are: 1) Russia's decline and lack of integration into Western institutions, 2) China's integration into US-led institutions without adopting American values, and 3) the feeling of being left behind by globalization among citizens in the United States and other wealthy democracies.
What does the speaker predict about the future world order?
-The speaker predicts that we will not have a bipolar, unipolar, or multipolar world order, but rather three different overlapping orders with the digital order having immense importance.
What is the current state of the global security order?
-The global security order is currently unipolar, with the United States and its allies being the most powerful players, capable of projecting military power worldwide.
How does the global economic order differ from the security order?
-The global economic order is multipolar, with power shared among different countries, including the United States, China, the European Union, and others, each with significant influence.
What is the role of technology companies in the emerging digital order?
-Technology companies are not run by governments but are becoming increasingly powerful, shaping our identities, communication, and even national security through their platforms and tools.
What impact did technology companies have on Ukraine's ability to defend against Russian cyber attacks?
-Technology companies provided Ukraine with the tools necessary to defend against Russian cyber attacks, enabling communication between leaders, generals, and soldiers on the front lines.
How do social media platforms influence society and politics today?
-Social media platforms can promote disinformation and conspiracy theories, influencing political outcomes and even inciting riots, as seen in events like the Capitol insurrection and other global incidents.
What is the potential consequence if technology companies align with governments in China and the United States?
-If technology companies align with governments, it could lead to a technology cold war, splitting the digital order into two, which may erode global cooperation and competition.
What concerns does the speaker raise about the accountability of technology companies?
-The speaker raises concerns about the accountability of technology companies in releasing powerful artificial intelligence, collecting unprecedented amounts of data, and perpetuating advertising models that may drive societal division and misinformation.
Outlines
🌏 Shifts in Global Power Dynamics
The speaker begins by reflecting on the historical shifts in global power structures, moving from a bipolar world dominated by the US and the Soviet Union to a unipolar one with the US as the sole superpower post-Soviet collapse. The narrative then transitions to the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape, marked by the US's reluctance to maintain its global leadership roles and the rise of other nations challenging the status quo. Key factors contributing to this shift include Russia's decline and resentment, China's integration yet divergence from Western expectations, and the widespread sentiment of being left behind by globalization, particularly in Western democracies. The speaker suggests that these factors are the primary drivers of today's geopolitical tensions and posits that we are now in a leaderless world, hinting at a future world order that may not fit traditional models.
🛡️ The Current Unipolar Security Order and Economic Multipolarity
This paragraph delves into the current state of global security and economic orders. It acknowledges the US's unchallenged military might and its ability to project power globally, while also noting the growing military capabilities of China, primarily in Asia. The speaker discusses the interdependence of the US and China economically, highlighting the highest level of trade relations in history between the two nations. The economic order is described as multipolar, with the EU, India, and Japan also playing significant roles. The paragraph also touches on the tensions between the security and economic orders, with the US using its national security leverage to influence global economies and China using its commercial power to shape diplomatic relations. The speaker introduces the concept of a third, emerging digital order that will significantly impact our lives.
🌐 The Emergence of a Digital Order and Its Implications
The final paragraph focuses on the impending digital order, which is not governed by nation-states but by technology companies. The speaker emphasizes the crucial role these companies have played in recent conflicts, such as providing Ukraine with the tools to defend against cyber attacks and maintain communication during war. The paragraph also addresses the influence of social media platforms on societal issues, such as the spread of disinformation and conspiracy theories, and their impact on political events. The speaker raises concerns about the power held by these technology companies, questioning their intentions and the potential consequences of their actions. The paragraph concludes with a call to question the role of technology in shaping our identities and the global stage, and a reflection on the responsibilities of these companies as they wield unprecedented power.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bipolar World
💡Unipolar World
💡Global Security Order
💡Multipolar World
💡Geopolitical Tension
💡Globalization
💡Technology Companies
💡Digital Order
💡Algorithm
💡Techno-Polar Order
💡Accountability
Highlights
The world has transitioned from a bipolar world dominated by the US and Soviets to a unipolar world with the US as the sole superpower, and now to a more complex, leaderless world.
Three key factors have led to the current geopolitical situation: 1) Russia's decline and anger at not being integrated into Western institutions, 2) China's integration into US-led institutions but maintaining its own identity, and 3) the feeling of being left behind by globalization among citizens in wealthy democracies.
Over 90% of current geopolitical tensions and conflicts stem from these three factors.
The world is moving towards three different overlapping orders - a global security order, a global economic order, and an emerging digital order.
The global security order remains unipolar, with the US and its allies as the most powerful players.
China is growing its military capabilities in Asia, causing concern among US allies in the region.
The global economic order is multipolar, with power shared among the US, China, EU, India, and Japan.
US-China trade relations are at an all-time high, despite political tensions.
Tensions exist between the security and economic orders, as the US uses its power to influence global economies and China tries to align the world diplomatically through its commercial position.
The emerging digital order is not run by governments but by technology companies, which have immense power and influence over our lives.
Technology companies played a crucial role in Ukraine's defense against Russian cyberattacks and enabled communication during the war.
Social media platforms and their algorithms have a significant impact on shaping our identities, opinions, and societal divisions.
The future of the digital order depends on whether technology companies align with governments or maintain global business models, potentially leading to a technology cold war, digital globalization, or a techno-polar order.
The unprecedented power of technology companies raises questions about their accountability, use of artificial intelligence, handling of data, and role in spreading hate and misinformation.
The US has shifted from being the principal exporter of democracy to exporting tools that can undermine it, with technology leaders having a significant influence on this trajectory.
The speech raises important questions about the role and responsibility of technology companies in shaping our world and the need for them to act accountably.
Transcripts
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