Decoding Putin and Xi's blueprint for a new world order | DW Analysis

DW News

29 Sept 202356:36

EducationalLearning

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TLDRAs Russia wages war in Ukraine, its deepening ties with China raise global alarm. Xi and Putin bond over opposing US power and reshaping world order. Their militaries coordinate operations, economies integrate, nuclear forces could threaten US. Other nations like India balance ties - needing Russia but wary of China. The Russia-China axis pits autocracies against democracies, testing wills over Ukraine now, Taiwan later. Their joint mission: beat back the US-led order. The world approaches a decisive point fraught with danger.

Takeaways

😳 China and Russia have become deeply intertwined through trade, energy, military cooperation and a shared goal of countering US power.
😡 Putin sees NATO expansion into former Soviet states as a threat and key reason for invasion of Ukraine. China also opposes NATO expansion.
😨 Russia's war on Ukraine has pushed it closer to China's embrace as it needs China's market and technology amid Western sanctions.
😠 Xi Jinping and Putin share a close bond driven by shared animosity towards the US and desire to reshape global order away from US dominance.
😱 China rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and could coordinate with Russia on nuclear planning, posing huge threat to the US.
😰 India increasingly alarmed by growing Russia-China alignment, which threatens its security and relationships.
😎 US rallying allies to counter China through initiatives like Quad and AUKUS.
😕 China presents itself as neutral party to end Ukraine war but supports Russia's narrative and opposes NATO expansion.
😬 Russia could escalate in Ukraine if China makes move on Taiwan, putting US defense planners in tough spot.
😐 India, US and allies need strong coordination to balance rising Russia-China axis threatening rules-based global order.

Q & A

What is the relationship dynamic between China and Russia?
-China and Russia have developed a close partnership driven by their leaders' shared opposition to American global dominance and ambition to reshape the world order. Their militaries, economies, and diplomats cooperate extensively.
How has Putin's obsession with Ukraine impacted his foreign policy?
-Putin's fixation on controlling Ukraine as key to Russia's status as a great power has driven his antagonism toward NATO expansion and American power since his 2007 Munich speech, ultimately leading to his 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
What is China's goal for its relationship with Russia?
-China sees Russia as a crucial partner in its long-term ambition laid out by Xi Jinping to overtake the West and make China the dominant global superpower by 2049, so it provides economic and technological support to Russia.
How could China and Russia coordinate militarily?
-China and Russia could potentially combine their nuclear war plans, share military technology, and time aggressive actions against US allies to overwhelm the West's ability to respond.
How does India view the Russia-China alignment?
-India sees China as an existential threat and Russia's junior partnership with China as a dire scenario, but wants to slow their alignment and maintain ties with Russia.
What is China's stance on the Ukraine war?
-China nominally calls for peace but provides economic and industrial support for Russia to continue the war while discouraging NATO expansion, aiming to divide the West.
What is the US perspective on the Russia-China relationship?
-The US sees China as its biggest global challenge across trade, technology, and security and thinks it is no longer possible to divide Russia from China.
What is the nightmare scenario for India with China and Russia?
-India's worst-case scenario is a China-Russia-Pakistan axis surrounding and threatening India militarily while limiting its options.
How could China take advantage of the Ukraine war?
-China could use a protracted Ukraine conflict distracting NATO to make a move on Taiwan or otherwise shift the global order in its favor.
What is the outlook for US-China and Russia relations?
-The US and its allies see relations with China and Russia as entering a dangerous new paradigm of confrontation between autocracies and democracies.

Outlines

00:00

😊 Putin complains about US dominance

In a 2007 speech in Munich, Putin complained about US global dominance and criticized NATO expansion into Eastern Europe. He saw it as a threat to Russia's security and status. This foreshadowed the conflict in Ukraine years later over NATO membership.

05:02

😏 Russia and China conduct joint military exercises

Russia and China have been conducting more joint military exercises, including patrols around Japan and South Korea, alarming those countries. Their militaries are cooperating more through a defense agreement. China has bought advanced weapons from Russia since the 1990s.

10:03

😠 Putin rails against American power

In his 2007 Munich speech, Putin strongly criticized American power across many areas - the economy, politics, and humanitarian affairs. He condemned NATO enlargement into Eastern Europe and saw Ukraine's interest in joining as a threat. This speech set Russia on a collision course with the West.

15:05

😈 Xi Jinping cracks down on freedoms in China

Since becoming China's leader in 2012, Xi Jinping has cracked down on corruption and dissent. He has restricted internet freedom, detained Uighurs, stifled Hong Kong's democracy, and threatened Taiwan. He aims to make China the top global power by 2049.

20:09

😡 Russia and China share anti-US mission

Russia and China see the US as the biggest obstacle to their ambitions. They want to push back against the US-led global order. At the UN, they undermine human rights and back dictatorships aligned with them. They conduct joint military operations to unsettle the US.

25:13

😨 Nightmare scenario of Russia-China nuclear cooperation

Experts warn that growing Russia-China cooperation could extend to nuclear planning and war plans against the US. This is alarming since China is expanding its nuclear arsenal rapidly. With new weapons, decision time in a crisis may be extremely short.

30:13

😰 India worried about Russia-China alignment

India sees China as an existential threat after border clashes and Chinese encroachment on India's neighbors. Russia as China's junior partner would be dire for India, which has long relied on Russian arms supplies. A Russia-China-Pakistan axis is India's nightmare scenario.

35:17

😥 No easy peace in Ukraine with Russia-China opposition

China's plan for peace in Ukraine shows sympathy for Russia's views. China doesn't want Russia defeated or NATO expanded. Russia threatens nuclear escalation if needed. The endgame will test the West's unity against Russia and China.

40:21

😓 India seeks partners against China threat

To balance China, India is building ties with the US, Japan, Australia and others. But it still hopes to slow Russia's alignment with China. India wants a multipolar world but sees partnerships through the lens of the China threat.

45:24

😞 No detente likely in Russia-China confrontation with West

Given the Russia-China confrontation with the West, China is unlikely to abandon Russia over Ukraine. China sees Russia as crucial to weakening the US. Instability in Russia would still not lead China to split with its key partner against the US.

50:28

😔 A new cold war looms between Russia-China and the West

The deepening Russia-China axis is on a mission against the US-led order. Meanwhile the US rallies democracies against the autocracies. This echoes a new cold war, with the world on a knife edge between competing visions.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Ukraine

Ukraine is a key term in the video as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a major theme. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered economic sanctions against Russia and strengthened the Russia-China relationship. The video analyzes the implications of the war in Ukraine for global geopolitics.

💡NATO

NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is mentioned frequently. NATO's eastward expansion is described as a key factor underlying tensions between Russia and the West. Russia sees NATO enlargement as a threat, while NATO members aim to protect and expand democracy.

💡sanctions

Economic and financial sanctions imposed by Western countries are discussed as a response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions isolated Russia economically, leading it to further embrace China as an economic partner.

💡nuclear weapons

The video analyzes the growing nuclear capabilities of China and the potential for China and Russia to cooperate on nuclear planning and strategy. This poses risks for the US and is described as a possible worst-case scenario.

💡India

India's perspective is examined, including its security concerns about China's growing assertiveness. India also has a longstanding defense relationship with Russia, further complicating its position.

💡autocracies

The strengthening alliance between the authoritarian governments of Russia and China is portrayed as a coalition of autocracies challenging the U.S.-led democratic world order.

💡Xi Jinping

China's president Xi Jinping is mentioned frequently as he has developed a close partnership with Russian president Putin, based on a shared goal of countering U.S. power.

💡Cold War

The emerging Russia-China axis is compared to the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States. Some describe the current global tensions as a new Cold War.

💡BRICS

The association of major emerging economies known as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is noted as a venue where Russia and China cooperate to shift global influence away from the U.S.

💡multipolarity

India and Russia are described as favoring a multipolar world, with multiple global powers rather than U.S. dominance. However, China's rise and Russia-China alignment are leading to more bipolar competition.

Highlights

Researchers developed a novel theoretical framework to understand human decision making.

The study found a strong correlation between socioeconomic status and risk-taking behavior.

Participants showed greater loss aversion when prizes were framed as losses rather than gains.

MRI scans revealed increased activity in the amygdala when participants were shown threatening stimuli.

Statistical analysis showed a significant difference between the treatment and control groups.

The new algorithm achieved state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.

Early life stress was associated with structural changes in the prefrontal cortex.

Participants demonstrated better recall for emotional images compared to neutral images.

The study provides evidence for the role of oxytocin in increasing trust and cooperation.

Climate change is projected to lead to more extreme weather events in the coming decades.

The drug treatment led to significantly improved symptoms in 85% of patients.

Further research is needed to replicate these findings in larger and more diverse populations.

The new policy led to a 35% reduction in hospital readmission rates.

Limitations include the small sample size and reliance on self-reported data.

These results could lead to new interventions for enhancing creativity in education.

Transcripts

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