The World Ahead 2024: five stories to watch out for

The Economist
28 Dec 202317:19
EducationalLearning
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TLDRIn 2024, a monumental year is forecasted, marked by significant global elections, advancements in transportation technology, debates over AI regulation, climate change challenges, and shifting geopolitical landscapes. The script highlights pivotal elections in the US and Taiwan, pointing to their potential impact on global stability and relations with China. The introduction of commercial electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) during the Paris Olympics signifies a leap in sustainable public transport. Concerns over AI's societal impacts prompt calls for balanced regulation, while industries face pressure to decarbonize amid advancements in green technology. Furthermore, the expansion of the BRICS bloc challenges the traditional American-led world order, signaling a more multipolar world stage in 2024.

Takeaways
  • 🗳️ 2024 will be the biggest election year in history, with significant focus on the elections in the United States and Taiwan, affecting global geopolitics.
  • 🇹🇼 Taiwan's election is crucial due to its uncertain future and potential Chinese invasion, highlighting the geopolitical tensions in the region.
  • 🇺🇸 The outcome of the US election could influence global security, especially concerning Taiwan, with President Biden indicating readiness to intervene militarily if necessary.
  • 🏅 The Paris 2024 Olympic Games will not only showcase sports but also introduce commercial eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) flights, marking a leap in sustainable urban transport.
  • 🚀 Advances in eVTOL technology signify a shift towards more sustainable and innovative modes of transportation, potentially transforming city travel.
  • 🌍 The discussion around AI regulation is intensifying, focusing on balancing technological advancement with addressing potential biases, discrimination, and risks.
  • 🏭 2024 will spotlight industrial greenhouse gas emissions, pushing for cleaner production processes and technologies to combat climate change.
  • 🌱 Innovations in green industry technology, such as Coolbrook's rotodynamic heater, offer promising solutions for decarbonizing industrial processes.
  • 🌐 The expansion of the BRICS bloc, with new members like Egypt and the UAE, challenges the American-led world order, hinting at a more multipolar global power structure.
  • 🔍 The script emphasizes the importance of elections, technological advancements in transportation and AI, the need for green industrial solutions, and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Q & A

  • What are the two major elections mentioned in the script that could have global repercussions?

    -The two major elections mentioned are the United States presidential election and the Taiwan presidential election, both scheduled for early 2024.

  • Why is the Taiwan election considered a geopolitical flashpoint?

    -The Taiwan election is considered a geopolitical flashpoint because the island's future sovereignty is uncertain, and according to US intelligence, China's President Xi Jinping wants the armed forces to be ready for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

  • What is the significance of eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles) and their potential debut at the 2024 Paris Olympics?

    -The script highlights eVTOLs as a promising technology for sustainable air transportation, and the 2024 Paris Olympics could mark the start of commercial eVTOL flights, showcasing their potential as a new form of urban mobility.

  • What are the concerns surrounding the regulation of AI technology in 2024?

    -The script discusses the debate around regulating AI technology, with some concerned about stifling innovation by imposing strict rules too early, while others worry about the potential risks of unchecked AI development, such as bias and discrimination.

  • What is the focus on industry and its role in greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

    -The script highlights that in 2024, there will be increased attention on the industrial sector as a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, nearly 29% of all emissions, with a focus on developing technologies to decarbonize industrial processes.

  • What is the significance of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) group expanding in 2024?

    -The script mentions that the BRICS group will expand to include five new members in 2024, challenging the American-led world order and potentially shifting global economic and political dynamics as a bloc of non-Western nations gains more influence.

  • What are the potential challenges and concerns surrounding the expanded BRICS group?

    -The script notes that despite their combined economic and population size, the expanded BRICS group may face challenges in cohesion due to differing economic priorities and recent border tensions between some members, such as China and India.

  • How does the script portray the potential future of American global influence?

    -The script suggests that while America's global influence is unlikely to be eclipsed anytime soon, its power is declining relative to the rise of middle powers and blocs like the expanded BRICS group, leading to a more multipolar world order.

  • What is the significance of the "Robodebt" scandal mentioned in the script?

    -The "Robodebt" scandal in Australia, where an AI system wrongfully accused welfare recipients of fraud, leading to at least two suicides, is cited as a precedent for the potential risks of using AI in decision-making without proper oversight and safeguards.

  • What is the potential impact of the European Union's carbon tax on imports mentioned in the script?

    -The script suggests that the European Union's carbon tax on imports, introduced in 2023, may spur other major economies like the United States, the UK, and Australia to implement similar measures, potentially driving industries to adopt decarbonization technologies faster.

Outlines
00:00
🌍 Global Elections and Geopolitical Tensions

2024 is highlighted as a pivotal year with over half of the world's population participating in national elections, emphasizing the critical nature of the elections in Taiwan and the United States due to their potential global repercussions. The uncertain future of Taiwan, under threat of Chinese invasion by 2027, sets a tense backdrop for the elections, with the outcome possibly affecting geopolitical stability. The narrative underscores the palpable tension among Taiwanese citizens, with many lacking confidence in their government's defensive capabilities against China. The scenario elaborates on the divide in Taiwan's political landscape between the ruling party advocating for self-rule and resistance against China, and the opposition parties favoring warmer relations with China. The story also points to the broader implications of the U.S. election outcome on Taiwan's security and the unpredictability a second Trump presidency could introduce, affecting not just Taiwan, but global stability.

05:00
🚀 The Rise of eVTOLs and AI Regulation Debate

The narrative transitions to technological advancements, spotlighting the introduction of electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing vehicles (eVTOLs) at the 2024 Paris Olympics as a significant leap towards sustainable public transport. The discussion then shifts to the challenges and potential of autonomous eVTOLs, balancing technological capabilities with certification hurdles and public acceptance. The video script touches on the broader competition in the eVTOL market, which is poised for commercialization, and the emergence of private, pilot-operable eVTOLs. It also delves into the contentious debate around AI regulation, highlighting the divide between fostering innovation and addressing immediate risks such as bias and discrimination. The coverage emphasizes the need for a more nuanced approach to AI regulation, focusing on tangible harms over hypothetical existential threats, and criticizes the tendency to exaggerate theoretical dangers as a distraction from current issues.

10:02
🏭 Industrial Decarbonization and BRICS Expansion

The focus shifts to environmental and economic shifts in 2024, spotlighting the industrial sector's role as a significant but often overlooked source of greenhouse gas emissions. It introduces innovative technologies aimed at decarbonizing industry, such as the rotodynamic heater for high-temperature processes using renewable electricity. The script outlines the potential regulatory push towards decarbonization, including the EU's carbon tax on imports and its global implications. The narrative then explores the geopolitical landscape, with the expansion of the BRICS coalition challenging the American-led world order. The addition of new members to BRICS signifies a shift towards a more multipolar world, even as the alliance's coherence and impact remain uncertain amidst differing economic priorities and regional tensions.

15:04
🌐 Global Shifts and Future Challenges

The script concludes by discussing the broader implications of the events and trends of 2024, suggesting a year marked by significant technological, geopolitical, and environmental transitions. It underscores the importance of understanding and navigating these changes to address future challenges effectively. The mention of a subscription to The Economist implies a call to stay informed about these critical developments as they unfold, emphasizing the value of insight into the trends shaping the future.

Mindmap
Keywords
💡Elections
Elections refer to the process of choosing representatives or leaders through voting. The script highlights the significance of the 2024 elections in Taiwan and the United States, as these could have major geopolitical consequences given Taiwan's precarious relationship with China and the potential for military conflict. The Taiwanese election is framed as a choice between self-rule and warmer relations with China, while the US election could impact the approach towards Taiwan's sovereignty.
💡eVTOLs
eVTOLs (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing vehicles) are a new form of urban air mobility that use electric power for vertical take-off and landing, as well as horizontal flight. The script presents eVTOLs as a sustainable future of public transportation, with companies like Volocopter aiming to launch commercial eVTOL flights during the 2024 Paris Olympics. These aircraft are portrayed as a potential revolution in urban mobility, offering quiet, safe, and emission-free transportation.
💡AI Regulation
AI regulation refers to the efforts to establish rules and guidelines for the development and deployment of artificial intelligence technologies. The script highlights the ongoing debate around AI regulation, with concerns about the potential risks of uncontrolled AI development, such as bias and discrimination, versus the fear of stifling innovation through overly strict regulations. The script emphasizes the need to focus on the immediate risks of AI rather than theoretical, existential threats.
💡Industrial Decarbonization
Industrial decarbonization is the process of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes and facilities. The script underscores the significant contribution of industry to global emissions (nearly 29%) and the challenges in decarbonizing sectors that rely on high temperatures and fossil fuels. It showcases innovations like Coolbrook's rotodynamic heater, which can generate high temperatures using renewable electricity, as potential solutions to make heavy industry more sustainable.
💡BRICS+
BRICS+ refers to the expansion of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) group of emerging economies to include five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The script presents BRICS+ as a challenge to the American-led global order, with its members accounting for a significant share of the world's population and economic output. However, it also highlights the diverse interests and potential tensions within the group.
💡Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical tensions refer to the conflicts, rivalries, and power struggles between nations or regions over strategic interests, resources, or ideological differences. The script highlights various geopolitical tensions, such as the potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the US-China rivalry, border disputes between China and India, and the challenge posed by BRICS+ to the American-led global order. These tensions are presented as significant factors shaping the events and developments in 2024.
💡Multipolar World
A multipolar world refers to a global power structure with multiple centers of influence and power, rather than a single dominant superpower. The script suggests that the rise of middle powers like Turkey and Qatar in mediating conflicts, as well as the growing influence of the BRICS+ group, signals a shift towards a more multipolar world order, where the United States' dominance is increasingly challenged by other nations and blocs.
💡Sustainability
Sustainability refers to the ability to meet present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The script highlights sustainability in the context of urban mobility with eVTOLs as a potential sustainable transportation solution, as well as in the efforts to decarbonize heavy industry through innovations like Coolbrook's rotodynamic heater, which enables the use of renewable energy for high-temperature industrial processes.
💡Automation
Automation refers to the use of technology and machines to perform tasks with minimal human intervention. The script discusses automation in the context of AI and its potential risks, such as the Robodebt scandal in Australia, where an automated debt collection system led to harm and distress for welfare recipients. The script emphasizes the need to address the immediate risks of AI systems, such as bias and discrimination, rather than focusing solely on theoretical, existential threats.
💡Innovation
Innovation refers to the process of introducing new ideas, methods, or technologies. The script highlights various innovations, such as eVTOLs for urban air mobility, Coolbrook's rotodynamic heater for industrial decarbonization, and advancements in AI. These innovations are presented as potential solutions to challenges in areas like transportation, sustainability, and industrial processes. However, the script also acknowledges the need for regulation and public acceptance to facilitate the successful adoption of these innovations.
Highlights

2024 will be the biggest election year in history, with more than half of the world's population living in countries holding national elections.

The election in Taiwan and the United States are particularly significant due to their potential global repercussions.

US intelligence reports suggest President Xi Jinping wants the Chinese armed forces to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

More than half of Taiwanese citizens lack confidence in their government's ability to defend against a Chinese invasion.

Taiwanese voters are faced with a choice between the current ruling party, which emphasizes Taiwanese self-rule, and opposition parties that seek warmer relations with China.

President Biden's stance on military intervention in Taiwan if China invades contrasts with the unpredictability of a potential second Trump presidency.

The 2024 Paris Olympics will showcase eVTOLs, electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles, as a sustainable future of public transport.

Volocopter plans to offer commercial eVTOL flights during the Paris Olympics, marking the start of commercial eVTOL service.

In 2024, a Palo Alto startup, Pivotal, will launch an eVTOL that individuals can purchase and pilot, resembling a flying motorbike.

The focus on AI in 2024 will include debates on how to regulate it without stifling innovation or overlooking potential risks.

Concerns over AI include biases and discrimination, with many governments being less than transparent about their use of AI in decision-making.

The EU's AI Act and AI safety summits in South Korea and Paris will address AI regulation and safety concerns.

Industry's role as a significant greenhouse gas emitter will come into focus, with innovations like Coolbrook's electric-powered high temperature technology offering solutions for greener industrial processes.

The BRICS bloc, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, will expand in 2024, challenging the American-led world order.

Expansion of the BRICS to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE indicates a move towards a more multipolar world.

Transcripts

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