The surprising math behind basketball's least efficient shot
TLDRThe video script explores the evolution of basketball strategies, particularly the decline of the mid-range jumper due to the rise of three-point shooting and analytics-driven 'Moreyball'. It explains the efficiency of layups, free throws, and threes, and how defenses adjust to minimize these opportunities. Despite the mid-range's lower efficiency compared to threes, skilled mid-range shooters can exploit defensive shifts, creating space for better shots. The San Antonio Spurs' success with a mid-range-centric offense highlights the strategic value of the mid-range in drawing defenders and setting up open shots. The script concludes that while threes and layups are more valuable, the mid-range remains a viable part of a balanced offensive strategy.
Takeaways
- 🏀 The mid-range jumper has become less popular in the NBA due to the emphasis on the more valuable three-point shot and the influence of analytics and Moreyball.
- 📊 Moreyball, named after Daryl Morey, prioritizes shots that maximize points per attempt, such as layups, free throws, and open three-pointers, which are more efficient than mid-range shots.
- 📈 The adoption of Moreyball strategies has contributed to record levels of scoring efficiency in the NBA in recent seasons.
- 🛡️ Defenses focus on preventing open layups and free throws, often leaving long two-pointers open as they are the least efficient shots.
- 🔍 The value of a mid-range shot increases as the shooter gets closer to the basket, with higher percentages and better returns on two-pointers.
- 🚫 Drop coverage in pick and roll defense is an example of a defensive adjustment that aims to deter open threes while allowing less efficient mid-range shots.
- 🎯 Good mid-range shooters can disrupt defenses by forcing them to allocate resources to slow down this threat, opening up opportunities for drives and three-point shots.
- 🏆 The San Antonio Spurs, despite taking the most long twos, finished with the third-best half-court offense in 2019, suggesting that mid-range shots can still be effective.
- 💰 The meta value of mid-range shots comes from pulling defenders away from the rim or three-point line, adding a third level of attack that can create better opportunities.
- 🚀 Kevin Durant's proficiency in mid-range shooting demonstrates that a high percentage on mid-range shots can be almost as valuable as open three-pointers.
- 📚 The book 'Thinking Basketball' explores the idea that the best shot for a team may not always be the best shot in a vacuum, depending on defensive coverage.
Q & A
What is the 'Moreyball' strategy and how does it prioritize shots in basketball?
-Moreyball, named after Houston Rockets' general manager Daryl Morey, prioritizes shots that provide the biggest return on investment, such as layups, free throws, and open three-pointers. It encourages teams to focus on these high-efficiency shots to produce efficient offense.
Why have mid-range jumpers seemingly gone out of style in the NBA?
-Mid-range jumpers have gone out of style due to the analytics revolution and Moreyball, which have emphasized the value of three-point shots and the inefficiency of long two-pointers compared to three-pointers.
How does the average NBA possession compare to the value of an open three-point shot?
-The average NBA possession in 2019 yielded 1.1 points, while the average open three-point shot was converted at 38.5% and is worth about 1.15 points per attempt, making three-pointers more valuable.
What is the general defensive strategy against a team following Moreyball principles?
-Defenses aim to minimize the openness of shots, prioritizing the prevention of open layups and dunks while allowing less efficient long twos, forcing opponents to take less efficient shots.
How does the value of a shot change as you get closer to the hoop?
-As players get closer to the hoop, the value of a two-pointer increases, making shots more efficient. For instance, a shot at the rim yields about 1.25 points per attempt, and free throws are even more efficient.
What is the inherent value of mid-range shots when made at high percentages?
-Mid-range shots have inherent value when made at high percentages, especially if they're self-generated at will, as they can raise the floor of a broken possession and force defenses to adjust.
How did the San Antonio Spurs' strategy with mid-range shots impact their overall offensive efficiency in 2019?
-Despite taking the most long twos in the league, the San Antonio Spurs finished with the third-best half-court offense in 2019, showing that a mid-range centric offense can excel by providing a third level of attack.
What is the meta-game value of mid-range shots in basketball?
-The meta-game value of mid-range shots lies in pulling defenders away from the rim or the three-point line, adding a third level for defenses to worry about, which can open up better opportunities for drives or three-point shooting.
How did Kawhi Leonard's mid-range shooting affect the Philadelphia 76ers' defensive strategy in the 2019 playoffs?
-Kawhi Leonard made 65% of his mid-range shots against a soft drop coverage by the 76ers, forcing them to adjust their defensive strategy to account for his mid-range threat.
What is the main takeaway regarding the value of long twos and mid-range shots in basketball?
-Long twos have a terrible return on investment due to their proximity to the three-point line and should only be taken in desperation. Mid-range shots, however, have inherent value when made at high percentages and can impact the game by drawing fouls and making it easier to score at the hoop or on the perimeter.
How did the addition of DeMar DeRozan impact the Spurs' three-point shooting?
-The addition of DeMar DeRozan, known for his mid-range shots, coincided with an increase in the Spurs' three-point shooting, improving their corner three-point percentage by six percentage points and above the break threes by three points.
Outlines
🏀 The Evolution and Value of Mid-Range Jumpers
The first paragraph discusses the shift in basketball strategy from mid-range jumpers to three-point shots due to analytics and 'Moreyball', a term coined after Daryl Morey, the general manager of the Houston Rockets. It explains how Moreyball prioritizes high-efficiency shots like layups, free throws, and open threes, as they yield more points per attempt compared to mid-range shots. The paragraph also touches on how defenses have adapted to minimize the effectiveness of these shots, leading to a focus on the mid-range area as a potential weak spot in the defense. It highlights that while mid-range shots are generally less efficient, a good shooter can still make them valuable by shooting at a high percentage, which can force defenses to adjust and create openings for other types of scoring opportunities.
🎯 The Strategic Importance of Mid-Range Shooting in Modern Basketball
The second paragraph delves into the strategic importance of mid-range shooting in the context of modern basketball. It explains how defenses allocate resources to counter mid-range threats, which can inadvertently open up opportunities for drives and three-point shots. The paragraph uses examples, such as the San Antonio Spurs' success with mid-range shooting, to illustrate that a mid-range centric offense can be highly effective. It also discusses the 'meta' value of mid-range shots, which lies in their ability to draw defenders away from the rim or three-point line, creating space for other offensive actions. The paragraph concludes by emphasizing that while long twos are a poor investment due to their proximity to the three-point line, mid-range shots made at high percentages can be very valuable, especially when they force defensive adjustments that lead to better scoring opportunities.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Mid-range jumper
💡Three-point shot
💡Moriball
💡Layups
💡Free throws
💡Defensive adjustments
💡Drop coverage
💡Scoring efficiency
💡Half-court play
💡Meta value
Highlights
The mid-range jumper has seen a shift in basketball, with the three-point shot becoming more valuable.
Maury Ball analytics has helped teams turn long twos into threes, but the mid-range is not dead.
Maury Ball prioritizes shots that provide the biggest bang for the buck, such as layups, free throws, and open threes.
The average open three is converted at a 38.5% clip, making these shots worth about 1.15 points per attempt.
Layups are even more efficient, with players making 63% of their shots at the rim, yielding about a point and a quarter per attempt.
Free throws are hyper-efficient, with the average NBA player shooting 77% from the line, making a two-shot foul worth about 1.5 points.
Adopting Maury Ball strategies is part of the reason why league-wide scoring efficiency has jumped to record levels in recent seasons.
Defenses can choose to create a five-man wall around the hoop, never surrendering an open lay-up or free throw, but this would also give opponents wide-open threes.
A strong shooter can make a 23-foot two-pointer around 40%, but the three-pointer is worth 50% more, making it a more valuable shot.
The closer a player is to the hoop, the greater the value of a two-pointer, leading to defensive adjustments like drop coverage and pick and roll defense.
Mid-range jumpers still have value when defenses are keyed in on no layups and no threes, as they can be a soft spot in the defense's strategy.
A good mid-range shooter can shoot over 45%, potentially over 50%, leading to high-quality offense and defensive resources being allocated to slow down these threats.
The threat of a viable mid-range score can draw fouls and make it easier to score at the hoop or on the perimeter, adding a third level for defenses to worry about.
A mid-range centric offense can excel by providing a third level of attack, helping to set up open shots or drives and free throws.
The Spurs, who took the most long twos in the league, finished with the third best half-court offense in 2019, showing the value of mid-range shots in team offense.
Kevin Durant, the game's best mid-range shooter that year, took 367 shots from around the foul line and made 55 of them, showing the direct and meta-game value of mid-range shots.
The transcript suggests that while layups, free throws, and open threes remain the game's best shots, mid-range shots have inherent value and meta-game impact.
Transcripts
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