Why you should love statistics | Alan Smith

TED
22 Feb 201712:50
EducationalLearning
32 Likes 10 Comments

TLDRThe transcript discusses the UK government's 2003 survey revealing a shocking lack of numeracy skills among adults, which surprisingly increased by 2011. It highlights the global issue of poor numeracy and the importance of statistical literacy. The speaker introduces a web app quiz designed to engage people with local census data in a visually intuitive way, demonstrating that statistics, when presented correctly, can reveal surprising insights about our communities and ourselves.

Takeaways
  • 📉 In 2003, the UK government found that 47 out of 100 working-age adults lacked Level 1 numeracy skills, a figure that rose to 49 in 2011.
  • 🌐 Numeracy issues are not isolated to the UK; the OECD reported that nearly 40% of young people in the US have low numeracy skills, with seven countries above 20%.
  • 🤔 The perception of numeracy as a skill only for those comfortable with numbers is a false dichotomy; everyone can be inspired by numbers.
  • 📊 Statistics, despite its image problem, is about us as a group and can be fascinating, especially when it surprises us with unexpected data.
  • 🧐 There is often a significant gap between public perception and statistical reality, as seen in surveys about the Muslim population in England and Wales.
  • 🌍 Misperceptions can be caused by individual experiences and media reporting, which often focuses on exceptions rather than the norm.
  • 🏠 A web app was created to test how well people know their local area based on census data, aiming to engage a wide range of individuals with numbers.
  • 🎮 The quiz gamified data and used animation to challenge preconceptions, leading to a high level of public engagement and discussion.
  • 💡 The success of the quiz, which even crashed the statistics website, demonstrated that people are willing to engage with statistics in a fun and personal way.
  • 👩‍🏫 The quiz was used to challenge politicians and encourage a deeper understanding of the areas they represent.
  • 🌟 Statistics is not just the science of uncertainty; it's the science of us, reflecting our society and how we relate to our communities.
Q & A

  • What was the main finding of the UK government's 2003 survey on numeracy levels?

    -The survey found that 47 out of every 100 working-age adults in the UK lacked Level 1 numeracy skills.

  • What does Level 1 numeracy skills refer to?

    -Level 1 numeracy skills refer to the ability to deal with fractions, percentages, and decimals, which is equivalent to a low-end GCSE score.

  • How did the UK government respond to the numeracy survey results?

    -The government changed policies and made investments to address the issue after the initial survey.

  • What was the outcome of the numeracy skills survey when it was conducted again in 2011?

    -The number of adults lacking Level 1 numeracy skills increased from 47 to 49 out of every 100 working-age adults.

  • What is the significance of the numeracy issue highlighted in the transcript?

    -The numeracy issue is significant because these skills are important for life, and the changes we want to introduce in this century involve becoming more comfortable with numbers.

  • What percentage of young people in the USA have low numeracy according to OECD figures?

    -Nearly 40 percent of young people in the US have low numeracy.

  • How does the transcript challenge the common perception about statistics?

    -The transcript challenges the perception by suggesting that statistics is not just about precision and certainty, but also about understanding us as a group and revealing surprising insights about our society.

  • What is the main purpose of the 'How well do you know your area?' quiz mentioned in the transcript?

    -The main purpose of the quiz is to engage people with census data in a gamified way, helping them understand their local area better and highlighting the discrepancies between perceptions and reality.

  • What was the public's reaction to the 'How well do you know your area?' quiz?

    -The public's reaction was very positive, with about a quarter of a million people playing the quiz within 48 hours of its launch, sparking discussions and making people engage with statistics in a new and enjoyable way.

  • What does the speaker suggest is the true nature of statistics?

    -The speaker suggests that statistics is not just the science of uncertainty, but rather the science of us, providing insights into our society and how we relate to our groups and peers.

  • How did the quiz address the issue of numeracy and statistics being perceived as difficult?

    -The quiz used isotypes, or repeating icons, to represent numbers, avoiding the use of complex terms like 'percentage', 'fractions', and 'ratios', making it more accessible to a wider audience, including those who struggle with numeracy.

  • What was the impact of the quiz on politicians and public figures?

    -People started sending the quiz to politicians, challenging them to know the area they represent, which shows the quiz's ability to stimulate engagement and accountability.

Outlines
00:00
📊 The UK's Numeracy Challenge and the Importance of Statistics

In 2003, the UK government found that 47 out of every 100 adults lacked basic numeracy skills, a number that slightly increased by 2011. This revelation led to policy changes and investments in education, highlighting a widespread issue with numeracy not just in the UK but globally, as evidenced by OECD statistics showing a significant percentage of young people with low numeracy levels in various countries. The speaker challenges the binary perception of people as either numerate or innumerate, advocating instead for a broader engagement with numbers through statistics. Despite statistics' reputation for complexity, the speaker argues for their relevance and power in reflecting societal trends and individual relation to the community, emphasizing how statistical surprises can reveal widespread misconceptions about societal issues.

05:04
🌍 Misconceptions Revealed: Global Perceptions vs. Reality

The speaker discusses the widespread nature of numerical misconceptions, illustrated by various surveys on public perceptions versus official statistics in areas such as teenage pregnancy rates in the UK, obesity levels in Saudi Arabia, and rural living in Japan. These examples underscore the disconnection between reality and individual perceptions, a phenomenon studied by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The speaker suggests that these errors in judgment are influenced by individual experiences and media representation, which often emphasizes the exceptional over the normative. This discussion leads to exploring how better familiarity with local statistics might improve accuracy in perceptions, introduced through a quiz based on census data designed to challenge and correct misconceptions by engaging with statistical data in an accessible and interactive manner.

10:04
👥 Bridging the Gap Between Perception and Reality Through Data

The speaker narrates the creation and impact of a web-based quiz designed to address misconceptions by comparing individuals' guesses about local demographics against actual census data. The quiz, inspired by Otto Neurath's isotypes, aimed to make statistical data engaging and accessible to the general public, not just the numerically proficient. The overwhelmingly positive response, including the site crashing due to high traffic, illustrates the public's interest in confronting their misconceptions. The quiz also prompted political engagement, with people challenging politicians to assess their understanding of their constituencies. Even experts like the national statistician and media personalities like Jeremy Paxman were not immune to the common discrepancies between perception and reality, underscoring the universal appeal and importance of statistical literacy as a means to connect more deeply with the societal state and community.

Mindmap
Keywords
💡numeracy
Numeracy refers to the ability to understand and work with numbers, including basic mathematical concepts such as fractions, percentages, and decimals. In the video, it is highlighted as a critical skill for life, with the UK government's survey revealing that a significant portion of the working-age population lacked even Level 1 numeracy skills, which is a concern for societal development and individual capability.
💡OECD
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organization that provides a forum for policy debate and statistical comparison of its member countries. In the context of the video, OECD figures are used to compare numeracy levels among young people across different countries, highlighting the prevalence of low numeracy skills globally.
💡numeracy problem
A numeracy problem refers to the widespread deficiency in numerical literacy and understanding among a population. The video addresses this issue by presenting statistics that indicate a significant number of adults lack basic numeracy skills, which is a concern for both individual well-being and societal progress.
💡statistics
Statistics is a branch of mathematics that deals with the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data. In the video, the speaker argues that statistics, despite having an image problem, are crucial because they are about us as a group and can reveal surprising insights about our society.
💡false dichotomy
A false dichotomy is a fallacy in which two options are presented as if they are the only possible choices, when in fact, more options may exist. In the video, the speaker argues against the false dichotomy that there are only two kinds of people: those who are comfortable with numbers and those who can't, suggesting that even without high levels of numeracy, one can be inspired by numbers.
💡Ipsos MORI
Ipsos MORI is a UK-based research company that conducts polls and surveys on various topics, including public opinion and social trends. In the video, Ipsos MORI's surveys are used to illustrate the gap between public perception and statistical reality, particularly in terms of demographic and social issues.
💡census data
Census data refers to the information collected by a census, which is a systematic method of gathering demographic, social, and economic data on a population. In the video, the speaker uses census data to create a quiz that allows individuals to test their knowledge of their local area against official statistics.
💡isotypes
Isotypes are graphical representations of data using icons or symbols that repeat to represent quantities. They are a form of visual communication that simplifies complex information into an easily understandable format. In the video, isotypes are used in the design of a quiz to make statistics more accessible and engaging by avoiding complex mathematical terms.
💡statistical graphics
Statistical graphics are visual representations of data and information, using various graphical elements such as charts, diagrams, and maps to illustrate patterns, trends, and correlations. They are essential tools for making data more understandable and engaging. In the video, the speaker mentions programming statistical graphics as part of their journey into appreciating the power of statistics.
💡Daniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman is a Nobel-winning economist known for his work on behavioral economics and decision-making processes, particularly the study of how people make judgments and decisions under uncertainty. In the video, Kahneman's research on cognitive biases and the discrepancies between perception and reality is referenced to explain why people often have misconceptions about statistical data.
💡gamification
Gamification is the application of game-design elements and principles in non-game contexts to increase user engagement and motivation. In the video, the speaker describes the creation of a quiz based on census data, which uses gamification techniques such as scoring and animation to make statistics more engaging and accessible to the general public.
Highlights

47 out of every 100 working age adults in the UK lacked Level 1 numeracy skills in 2003.

UK numeracy levels increased negatively, rising to 49% in 2011.

Numeracy issues are not unique to the UK; nearly 40% of young people in the US have low numeracy.

The Netherlands and Korea have less than 10% low numeracy among young people, showing a significant contrast.

The speaker challenges the dichotomy that people are either comfortable with numbers or not.

Statistics, despite their complexity, are essential as they reflect our community and state.

Ipsos MORI survey shows a large gap between perception and reality in various societal aspects.

Public misconception example: British people overestimate the proportion of Muslims in the country.

Statistical literacy is a global issue, as evidenced by misconceptions in Saudi Arabia and Japan.

Personal biases and media reporting contribute to the gap between perception and reality.

The speaker developed a local area knowledge quiz to improve statistical understanding.

The quiz uses isotypes for representation, making statistics more accessible.

Public engagement with the quiz was high, reflecting a demand for accessible statistical information.

Even experts like the national statistician scored relatively low on the local area knowledge quiz.

Statistics is not just about uncertainty but about understanding 'us' as a community.

Transcripts

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NumeracyChallengesStatisticalPerceptionDataPowerMisconceptionsEducationOECDUKSurveysNumeracySkillsStatisticsQuizPublicEngagement