Cybertruck Ramp Forecast! W Progress, Crash Test Excavation! 29 Jan 2024 Giga Texas Update(08:00AM)

Joe Tegtmeyer

29 Jan 202433:42

EducationalLearning

32 Likes 10 Comments

TLDRJoe provides an in-depth analysis of projected Cybertruck production numbers at Giga Texas in 2024. He estimates a production ramp starting around 250 per week in Q1, rising to 1000 per week by Q4 as more 4680 battery lines come online. Joe compares his projections to early VIN data, finding them fairly aligned so far. The video tour shows construction progress on the parking garage, end-of-line facility, tunnel boring machine setup, and steel building extension. Joe notes ramped up Model Y and Cybertruck production with more vehicles seen outbound. Overall the site continues to rapidly expand to enable higher production volumes by end of 2024.

Takeaways

😀 Joe provides estimates on Cybertruck production ramp and numbers based on his projections
🚗 About 700 Cybertrucks completed by Jan 29 out of 1835 total VINs scanned
📈 Joe projects 250 Cybertrucks per week by end of Feb 2024 with a run rate of 24,000 per year
⏱ Cybertruck production is complex with longer ramp times than other models
🏭 Giga Texas production capacity will increase throughout 2024 with added shifts and 4680 lines
⚡ MEAP site not yet connected to provide backup power
🚧 Construction continues on parking garage, end of line facility, tunnel boring
👷‍♂️ Installation of ventilation system underway on factory roof
🔋 Deliveries of 4680 equipment continues as 4 new lines are prepped
📐 West side steel building extension progressing from east to west

Q & A

What is the most common question that Joe gets about Cybertruck production?
-The most common question is how many Cybertrucks are being produced at Gigafactory Texas.
What are some factors that will affect Cybertruck production rates at Gigafactory Texas?
-Factors like production line upgrades, 4680 battery cell production capacity, construction completion, addition of a second shift, and installation and training on equipment for the next generation vehicle platform will impact Cybertruck production rates.
What is the difference between production capacity and production rate?
-Production capacity refers to the maximum output able to be produced based on equipment and facilities installed. Production rate refers to the actual average output over a period of time.
When does Joe estimate the second major inflection point for Cybertruck production will occur?
-Joe estimates the second major inflection point will occur in late Q3 or early Q4 2024 when 4680 production lines 5-8 come fully online, greatly increasing battery production capacity.
What is the current status of the temporary electrical switchyard?
-The temporary electrical switchyard that powered Gigafactory Texas through 2022 is being disassembled and removed now that the new permanent switchyard is operational.
What new activity is happening near the crash test facility?
-Excavation work has begun near the south end of the crash test facility, possibly for a new column or light pole.
What work is being done on the 4680 cell production area?
-Interior demolition, new industrial lifts being installed, air filtration system deliveries, and other preparations are underway to support the future addition of 4 more 4680 production lines.
What is the status of the MEAPAC battery backup site?
-The MEAPAC site looks mostly finished but the electrical disconnects are still open, so it is not yet providing backup power to Gigafactory Texas.
What new developments are happening with the multilevel parking garage?
-New staircases, elevator shafts, concrete columns and wall panels are being installed. Expansion joints are also being constructed between sections.
When does the tunnel boring by The Boring Company look to commence?
-With support equipment and the boring machine being assembled, the actual tunnel drilling may still be a couple weeks away.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Introducing cybertruck production estimates chart

The paragraph introduces Joe's cybertruck production ramp chart with estimates on weekly production rate and number of truck deliveries in 2024. It explains key assumptions like single shift, second shift addition, and 4680 battery production capacity expansion. The estimates will serve as mileposts to track actual production progress.

05:01

😊 Comparing estimates with current cybertruck VINs

The paragraph compares Joe's production estimates with actual cybertruck VINs registered so far. About 997 total VINs activated and around 700 trucks completed by January 29. By end of February, estimates show annual run rate around 24,000 and 3,000 customer deliveries.

10:01

🤔 Clarifying meaning of production capacity

The paragraph clarifies that installed production capacity numbers shown at recent meeting indicate potential full capacity, not current production rate. Many factors can affect actual production rate achieved at Gigatexas.

15:02

🚧 Viewing construction activity around site

The paragraph provides an overview of construction activity seen around Gigatexas during the drone flyover. This includes excavation near crash test lab, work on water detention pond, cell test lab, 4680 battery area, issues with factory roof membrane, progress on steel structure of south building extension, tunnel boring machine setup, etc.

20:04

👷🏻‍♂️ Watching material and vehicle movement

The paragraph shows movement of various materials and vehicles around the Gigatexas site. This includes deliveries of air filtration systems, drywall, concrete castings, possible paint system items, supercharger cabinets, etc. It also shows cybertrucks coming out of end-of-line and being transported.

25:04

⚡ Following power infrastructure updates

The paragraph focuses on updates to the power infrastructure. It shows disassembly of the temporary switchyard, materials stored for relocation. Also power boxes installation near factory and supercharger installation near end-of-line facility.

30:06

🛣️ Final drone tour around gigatexas site

The concluding paragraph provides a final flyover covering multiple areas of activity across the Gigatexas site. This includes parking garage work, road construction, ventilation system under factory roof, steel tanks installation, tunnel boring machine setup, south building extension, seal building glass wall installation, etc.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡cybertruck

The cybertruck is the electric pickup truck developed by Tesla. It is a major focus of the video, which discusses estimates and projections for cybertruck production at Gigafactory Texas in 2024. The script refers to details like the production run rate, number of deliveries, complexity of the production line, and ramp up schedule for the cybertruck.

💡production

A key theme of the video is projecting and tracking the production capacity and run rate for vehicles, especially the cybertruck, at Gigafactory Texas. The presenter discusses factors like battery production, construction status, shifts per day, and installed equipment that will impact production numbers.

💡4680

The 4680 refers to the 46mm x 80mm battery cells that Tesla has developed. Expanding 4680 battery production capacity is critical for enabling increased vehicle production. The script discusses the 4680 production lines being built and increased to 8 total lines by end of 2024.

💡Gigafactory Texas

The Gigafactory Texas, also known as Giga Texas, is Tesla's massive vehicle and battery production complex near Austin, Texas which is the primary focus of the video. All the projections and construction updates relate to expanding operations and output from Giga Texas.

💡construction

A major part of tracking Tesla's ramp up in production involves following the ongoing construction projects at Giga Texas. The video showcases new structures like the parking garage, end of line facility, steel building extension and more.

💡Next Generation vehicle

Beyond cybertruck, the presenter alludes to Tesla's future vehicles, often called the Next Generation platform, which will also be produced at Giga Texas. New equipment installation and expansions are starting to support these future models.

💡battery cathode plant

The battery cathode plant is a facility at Giga Texas focused on producing the components that make up the cathode part of battery cells. The script references the delivery of materials and potential start of cathode production soon.

💡tunnel

A Boring Company tunnel bored underneath the highway is meant to connect the main factory to the new Steel Building Extension. The video showcases equipment and prep work for the tunnel boring machine.

💡run rate

The run rate refers to the production rate or average number of vehicles produced over a given time period. Projecting the cybertruck run rate in terms of vehicles per week or per year is a core part of estimating output and delivery volumes.

💡shift

The number of operating shifts per day (currently 1 with plans to expand to 2) factors significantly into production capacity and run rate projections. More shifts means more operating hours for vehicle assembly.

Highlights

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Transcripts

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