2013 Hagey Lecture: Margaret MacMillan - Choice or Accident: The Outbreak of World War One

The Vice President of Academic Affairs at the university welcomes attendees to the 2013 Heggy Lecture. The lecture series, honoring the university's first president Dr. Heggy, has been running for 43 years. Dr. Heggy's focus on industrial contacts and cooperative education remains a core value of the university. The series invites international speakers to discuss topics valuable to the community, faculty, and students.

The chair of the Heggy Lecture Committee, following Professor McB's remarks, provides a brief history of the lecture series. Established in 1970, the series honors Dr. Harold Heggy, the university's founder. It aims to bring influential individuals to present engaging ideas that connect various fields of inquiry. Notable past speakers include Nobel laureates and public intellectuals.

Professor Dan Gorman introduces the 42nd Heggy lecturer, Dr. Margaret McMillan. Dr. McMillan, a renowned historian, is the author of several acclaimed books and has received numerous prestigious awards. She is currently a professor at the University of Oxford and a fellow of several esteemed institutions. Her latest book, 'The War That Ended Peace,' explores the causes of the First World War.

Dr. McMillan begins her lecture by highlighting the significant impact of the First World War, including the immense casualties and destruction it caused. The war drastically changed Europe, leading to the collapse of empires and the rise of new powers. It left a legacy of cynicism and violence, influencing political upheavals and extremist movements in the following decades.

Dr. McMillan discusses the various explanations for the outbreak of the First World War, ranging from economic rivalry and nationalism to individual decisions and accidents. She emphasizes the importance of recognizing that historical events are not inevitable but are shaped by choices and circumstances. She compares the 1914 crisis to the Cuban Missile Crisis, illustrating how different decisions could have altered history.

Dr. McMillan examines the societal changes and technological advancements in Europe leading up to 1914. Despite the progress, there were underlying tensions and fears, such as nationalism, social Darwinism, and militarism. These factors created a volatile environment where war was seen as a viable option by those in power.

Dr. McMillan highlights the influence of key leaders in Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia on the events leading to the war. The personalities and decisions of Wilhelm II, Franz Joseph, and Nicholas II significantly impacted their countries' paths to conflict. She discusses how these leaders' ambitions and weaknesses contributed to the outbreak of war.

Dr. McMillan explains the formation of alliances and how they contributed to the tensions in Europe. The alliances, intended as defensive measures, often appeared aggressive to other nations, escalating the situation. The relationships between France, Russia, Germany, and Austria-Hungary created a complex web of commitments that made conflict more likely.

Dr. McMillan describes the military strategies and plans that prioritized offensive actions. Despite evidence suggesting the effectiveness of defensive strategies, European powers maintained a belief in decisive, offensive wars. This mindset, coupled with a lack of flexibility in military planning, pushed nations toward conflict.

Dr. McMillan analyzes how previous crises in Europe influenced the decision-makers in 1914. The pattern of brinkmanship and bluffing in earlier conflicts created a dangerous precedent. Leaders believed they could force their opponents to back down, but this time, no one was willing to retreat, leading to war.

Dr. McMillan discusses the critical moments and decisions that led to the war. She points out how the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the absence of key leaders, and the misjudgments of the military and political leaders escalated the crisis. The mobilization plans and alliances left little room for de-escalation once the conflict began.

Dr. McMillan concludes by reflecting on the mix of accidents and deliberate decisions that led to the First World War. She emphasizes the importance of understanding the choices made by historical figures and the context in which they operated. She suggests that recognizing the potential for different outcomes can provide valuable lessons for contemporary decision-making.

David Perre, President of the Faculty Association, thanks Dr. McMillan for her insightful lecture. He highlights the importance of her research in understanding the complex interplay of accident and intent that led to the First World War. The lecture prompts reflections on how historical lessons can inform current and future decisions.

The lecture concludes with a Q&A session. Audience members ask about topics such as the appeal of war as an adventure, the tipping points in decision-making, the role of oil, and alternative historical scenarios. Dr. McMillan provides thoughtful responses, emphasizing the complexity of historical events and the importance of examining choices and context.

Dr. McMillan discusses the potential outcomes if different decisions had been made in 1914. She considers the impact of Britain's involvement and the hypothetical scenarios of a quick German victory. She concludes by inviting the audience to reflect on the broader implications of historical events and the importance of making informed choices in the present.