The Top 10 BIGGEST Juiced Ball Frauds
TLDRThe video script delves into the 2019 baseball season, dubbed the 'Juiced ball season,' where home run records were shattered. It explores the impact of the altered ball physics, with 600 more home runs than the previous record. The script scrutinizes players like Gleyber Torres, Starling Marte, and Brett Gardner, who saw significant increases in home runs, suggesting their performances may have been anomaliesๅพ็ไบ the 'juiced' balls. Using metrics like Barrel rate, average exit velocity, and ISO difference, the video aims to identify the players who benefited most from the season's conditions, potentially inflating their power-hitting reputations.
Takeaways
- ๐ The 2019 season saw an all-time high in home run records, surpassing the previous record set in 2017 by over 600 home runs.
- ๐ Writers and statisticians noticed an increase in home runs as early as April 5th, 2019, prompting studies to investigate the cause.
- ๐ Studies concluded that the 2019 baseball had less drag, causing it to carry further in the air, but the reason for this change remained unclear.
- ๐ The unprecedented number of home runs in 2019 overshadowed other player archetypes and affected the perceived value of players' performances.
- ๐ฅ The home run boom led to a significant fallout, with fans dismissing the 2020 season and players' performances due to the change in ball characteristics.
- ๐ฏ The video aims to identify the 'biggest frauds' of the 2019 'Juiced ball' season by analyzing various advanced metrics.
- ๐ Metrics such as Barrel rate, average exit velocity, and difference in ISO from career averages were used to determine which players' home run performances were most influenced by the 'Juiced ball'.
- ๐ Notable players like Gleyber Torres, Starling Marte, and Max Kepler were highlighted as having seasons that may have been inflated by the 2019 ball.
- ๐ The analysis revealed that players like Brett Gardner, with a significant increase in home runs and ISO, were likely the most affected by the 'Juiced ball'.
- ๐ Brett Gardner was identified as the biggest 'Juiced ball' fraud of 2019, with a dramatic increase in home runs and ISO compared to his career averages.
- ๐ซ The video script humorously ends with a mock legal intervention, suggesting the analysis might have hit too close to home for some players.
Q & A
What was special about the 2019 baseball season in terms of home runs?
-The 2019 season was notable for setting an all-time home run record, surpassing the previous record set in 2017 by over 600 home runs. This was such a significant increase that at the 2017 rate, an additional 536 games would have been needed to match the 2019 total.
When did writers and analysts start to notice the increase in home runs during the 2019 season?
-As early as April 5th, writers began to notice an uptick in the number of home runs being hit during the 2019 season.
What were the conclusions of the studies conducted to determine the cause of the increase in home runs in 2019?
-Studies conducted both internally by MLB and by independent journalists concluded that the 2019 baseball had less drag, which allowed the ball to carry more in the air. However, the exact reason for this change could not be determined as MLB stated that the manufacturing process had not changed.
How did the distribution of home runs in 2019 differ from previous years, and what was the impact on the perception of player performance?
-In 2019, there was a rise in the 'middle class' of home run hitters, with more players hitting in the 25 to 39 and 15 to 24 home run ranges. This overshadowed the true sluggers and led to a loss of variety and player archetypes, with inflated numbers from contact-oriented players making the impressive totals of traditional sluggers seem less remarkable.
What was the long-term effect of the 2019 home run boom on player contracts and fan perceptions?
-Many players were rewarded with contracts that may not have truly reflected their talent level due to their 2019 performances. Fans also began to dismiss the 2020 season as an aberration, leading to a shrugging off of player performances that year. This resulted in a fallout when players who performed exceptionally in 2019 failed to maintain those levels in subsequent years.
What was the purpose of the video in analyzing the 2019 season's home run hitters?
-The purpose of the video was to identify the biggest 'frauds' of the 2019 'Juiced ball' season by using advanced analytics to determine whose high home run seasons were the most influenced by the characteristics of the baseball used that year.
What was the home run cutoff used for the analysis in the video?
-The home run cutoff used for the analysis was 25, as it was considered a number that raises a flag indicating a player is a home run hitter.
What metrics were used to determine which players were the biggest 'frauds' of the 2019 season?
-Metrics used included Barrel rate, average exit velocity (exit V), the difference between expected and actual weighted on-base average (X wOBA to actual wOBA) for fly balls only, exit velocity for the hitter's 50% best struck balls, and the difference in 2019 isolated slugging from their career ISO.
Why was the Barrel rate considered a significant metric in the analysis?
-The Barrel rate was significant because it accounts for the optimal conditions for an extra base hit, understanding that a ball hit at different angles needs to be hit with different amounts of force to be effective.
What was the significance of the 'Fly ball difference' metric used in the analysis?
-The 'Fly ball difference' metric was significant as it indicated who milked lazy fly balls for homers the most in 2019, suggesting that some players benefited more from the ball carrying further than they normally would.
Which player was identified as the biggest 'Juiced ball fraud' of the 2019 season?
-Brett Gardner was identified as the biggest 'Juiced ball fraud' of the 2019 season, with a significant increase in home runs compared to his career average and metrics suggesting his performance was highly influenced by the characteristics of the ball that year.
Outlines
๐ The 2019 Home Run Explosion
The 2019 Major League Baseball season was marked by a record-breaking number of home runs, surpassing the previous record set in 2017 by over 600 home runs. The increase began to be noticeable as early as April 5th, prompting studies by MLB and independent journalists to investigate potential causes. The 2019 baseball was found to have less drag, allowing it to carry further in the air. Despite MLB stating that the manufacturing process had not changed, the number of home runs hit in 2019 was unprecedented, with over 1,200 more than the steroid-era peak in 2000. The distribution of home runs in 2019 saw a rise in 'middle-class' home run hitters, overshadowing traditional sluggers and leading to a homogenization of player performance. This surge in home runs had lasting effects, influencing player contracts and fan perceptions, and causing a significant shift in offensive output in subsequent seasons.
๐ Analyzing the 'Juiced Ball' Impact with Advanced Metrics
The video script delves into an analysis of the 2019 'juiced ball' season using advanced metrics from Statcast data. The host sets a home run cutoff at 25 to focus on significant home run hitters and employs several metrics to evaluate player performance. These include Barrel rate, which measures the optimal conditions for extra base hits; average exit velocity (exit V); the difference between expected and actual weighted on-base average (XwOBA to wOBA) for fly balls; exit velocity for the hitter's 50% best struck balls; and the difference in 2019 isolated slugging from their career ISO. The analysis aims to identify players whose 2019 home run totals may have been inflated due to the characteristics of the ball, rather than their inherent abilities.
๐ The 'Juiced Ball Saviors' and the Unexpected Inclusions
The script reveals a list of players who were identified as the 'Juiced Ball Saviors,' those whose performance was not significantly affected by the ball's characteristics. It also discusses the surprising inclusion of certain players like Josรฉ Altuve, who adapted to the 'juiced ball' era by transitioning from a contact hitter to a power hitter, and Charlie Blackmon, whose performance was attributed partially to the favorable conditions of his home ballpark. The analysis highlights players like Torres, Marte, Kepler, and others who may have been overvalued due to the 'juiced ball' season, suggesting that their 2019 performances were not indicative of their true abilities.
๐ The Transformation of Certain Players and the Astros' Offense
The video script discusses the transformation of players like Altuve, who managed to adapt to the 'juiced ball' and become a power hitter, and others like Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel, who were part of the Houston Astros' powerful offense. It points out that Bregman's 2019 season skewed expectations of his capabilities, and that Gurriel's mid-season power surge may have been a strategic response to the fly balls turning into home runs. The analysis also touches upon the success stories of players who managed to thrive during the 'juiced ball' era, adjusting their gameplay to maximize their potential.
๐ฏ Identifying the Biggest 'Juiced Ball' Fraud: Brett Gardner's Surprising Season
The script culminates in the revelation of the biggest 'juiced ball' fraud of the 2019 season, identifying Brett Gardner as the player whose home run total was most likely inflated by the ball's characteristics. Gardner, who had a career-high 28 home runs in 2019, was not known for his power, with an average of 11 home runs per 162 games prior to that season. His isolated slugging (ISO) in 2019 was significantly higher than his previous career high, suggesting an outlier performance. The analysis concludes that Gardner's 2019 season was an anomaly, likely due to the 'juiced ball,' and not reflective of his true abilities as a player.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กHome Run
๐กJuiced Ball
๐กBarrel Rate
๐กExit Velocity
๐กSlugger
๐กSteroid Era
๐กIsolated Slugging (ISO)
๐กAdvanced Analytics
๐กContract
๐กFantasy Baseball
๐กStrike Zone
Highlights
The 2019 season set a new all-time home run record, surpassing the previous record by over 600 home runs.
At the 2017 rate, an additional 536 games would be needed to match the 2019 home run total.
By April 5th, 2019, writers noticed an increase in home runs, which continued to rise throughout the season.
Studies were conducted to determine the cause behind the increase in home runs, with the 2019 ball found to have less drag.
Major League Baseball could not determine why the manufacturing process resulted in less drag on the 2019 ball.
2019 saw an unprecedented number of home runs, with 600 more than the previous record set in 2017.
The distribution of home runs in 2019 differed significantly from the steroid era peak in 2000.
The 2019 home run boom led to a rise in 'middle-class' home run hitters, overshadowing traditional sluggers.
Fans dismissed the 2020 season as an aberration, affecting perceptions of player performances.
Some players suffered when the ball returned to its pre-2019 form, leading to a decrease in offensive output in 2022.
Contracts were awarded based on 2019 performances, which may not have accurately reflected players' talent levels.
The video aims to identify the biggest 'frauds' of the 2019 season using advanced analytics.
A third-grade level understanding of advanced analytics was used to determine the legitimacy of 2019 home run seasons.
Metrics such as Barrel rate, average exit velocity, and ISO difference were used to evaluate players' power.
The analysis considered players with at least 25 home runs in the 2019 season.
Brett Gardner's 2019 season, with 28 home runs, is highlighted as one of the most improbable.
Gardner's isolated slugging increased dramatically from his previous career high.
The analysis concludes that Gardner's 2019 performance was likely a product of the 'juiced ball' era.
Transcripts
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