Zakupy za 12 000 zł. Znów robi się bardzo tanio. Dobre prognozy zysków dla spółek z WIG.

Zawód Inwestor
16 Dec 202417:56
EducationalLearning
32 Likes 10 Comments

TLDRIn this episode, the speaker discusses the reduced geopolitical risk for Poland compared to 10-15 years ago, suggesting that the market overestimates this risk, making the Polish stock market undervalued. They share their investment strategy, focusing on private companies with better management and long-term growth potential. The speaker also highlights the strength of the Polish economy, with a growing GDP and strong companies expanding internationally. They provide insights into their investment portfolio, emphasizing the importance of diversification and strategic allocation of capital. The episode concludes with a look at recent investments and their potential for future growth.

Takeaways
  • 🔬 The speaker believes that Poland's geopolitical risk is currently less significant than it was 10-15 years ago, despite market overestimation.
  • 🔥 The Polish stock market is described as undervalued, with the speaker making new purchases totaling less than 12,000 PLN.
  • 🔬 The speaker highlights that geopolitical risks are often overestimated by foreign investors, particularly in the context of Poland's increasing strength and independence.
  • 🔬 The speaker discusses the impact of political instability on corporate governance, using Orlen's decision to halt a capital-intensive project as an example.
  • 🔬 The speaker is optimistic about the future of the Polish market, expecting growth in 2025 and a continued rise in GDP.
  • 🔬 The speaker emphasizes the potential of Polish companies to expand in Western markets, citing examples like Kruk and Budimex.
  • 🔬 The speaker shares investment strategies, focusing on companies with strong management and long-term growth potential, such as XTB and Digital Network.
  • 🔬 The speaker provides insights into their investment portfolio, noting a preference for the Polish stock market over the S&P 500 due to current valuations.
  • 🔬 The speaker discusses the importance of diversification and the use of various investment tools, including ETFs and bonds, to manage risk.
  • 🔬 The speaker reflects on the performance of their investment portfolio, highlighting gains and strategies for future investments.
Q & A

  • Why does the speaker believe that geopolitical risk for Poland is currently less significant than it was 10-15 years ago?

    -The speaker suggests that geopolitical risk for Poland is less significant now because Russia's invasion of Ukraine has revealed its weaknesses and Poland has gained strategic advantages with the addition of Sweden and Finland as NATO members. Additionally, Poland is seen as a strong and independent country in the region, especially considering its defense spending relative to GDP.

  • What is the speaker's view on the current state of the Polish stock market?

    -The speaker views the Polish stock market as undervalued and 'ridiculously cheap', suggesting that it is a good time for investment. They believe that the market's current state is due to an overemphasis on geopolitical risks by foreign investors.

  • What recent investment did the speaker make and why?

    -The speaker recently invested in the Polish stock market, specifically purchasing shares of Kruk and Digital Network. They chose these companies because they believe in their long-term growth potential and solid management.

  • How does the speaker perceive the impact of the Orlen scandal on the Polish stock market?

    -The speaker sees the Orlen scandal as an example of how political instability can lead to inefficiencies in capital allocation and losses for shareholders. They believe that this has contributed to the overall weakness of the Polish stock market.

  • What are the speaker's thoughts on the future of the Polish economy and its companies?

    -The speaker is optimistic about the Polish economy, expecting a GDP growth of around 3.5% in the coming years. They believe that some Polish companies will expand significantly in Western markets, citing examples like Kruk, Kent Group, and Budimex.

  • How does the speaker feel about investing in the US market compared to the Polish market?

    -While the speaker acknowledges the strength and fundamentals of the US market, they are cautious about the current valuations and potential for significant growth. They prefer a balanced approach, investing more in the Polish market due to its undervalued status and opportunities for higher returns.

  • What is the speaker's strategy for managing their investment portfolio?

    -The speaker's strategy involves a mix of active and passive investments, focusing on both Polish and international markets. They allocate a significant portion of their capital to the Polish stock market and use services like MyFund to track and manage their portfolio.

  • What are the speaker's views on the performance of specific companies like Kruk and Digital Network?

    -The speaker is positive about Kruk and Digital Network, noting their solid financial performance and growth potential. They believe these companies will continue to perform well due to their strong market positions and effective business strategies.

  • How does the speaker assess the current market conditions for investing in Poland?

    -The speaker sees current market conditions in Poland as favorable for investing, given the undervalued nature of the market and the potential for growth. They believe that the market's reaction to geopolitical risks is exaggerated, presenting a good opportunity for value investors.

  • What is the speaker's outlook for the Polish stock market in 2025?

    -The speaker is optimistic about the Polish stock market in 2025, expecting it to perform better as the economy grows and the geopolitical situation stabilizes. They believe that the market will continue to attract both domestic and international investors.

Outlines
00:00
🌍 Geopolitical Risks and Market Opportunities in Poland

The speaker discusses the current geopolitical situation in Poland, arguing that it is less significant than it was 10-15 years ago. They mention that the Polish stock market is undervalued and presents good investment opportunities. The speaker shares their recent purchases and highlights the importance of focusing on private entities with better management and long-term growth potential. They also touch on the political instability affecting capital allocation and the impact of Russia's actions on its strategic position. The speaker expresses optimism about Poland's economic growth and the potential for Polish companies to expand into Western markets.

05:00
📊 Analyzing the Polish Stock Market and Investment Strategies

This paragraph delves into the financial performance of the Polish stock market, noting a correction in the index due to decreased earnings. The speaker highlights the importance of selecting companies with stable earnings, such as xtb, Digital Network, and Kruk. They discuss the potential for growth in the coming year, citing a Bloomberg forecast of a 26% increase in earnings. The speaker also compares the Polish market's valuation to historical averages and expresses their investment strategy, focusing on the Polish stock market while maintaining a diversified portfolio that includes ETFs and stocks from other markets.

10:00
📈 Portfolio Management and Investment Performance

The speaker provides an update on their investment portfolio, noting recent purchases and the performance of various holdings. They discuss the growth of companies like Kruk and Digital Network and their contributions to the portfolio's value. The speaker also reflects on the challenges of diversification and the need to take calculated risks to achieve higher returns. They mention the use of a financial service to track their investments and express satisfaction with the portfolio's performance, aiming for a balance between Polish and international investments.

15:01
🤔 Assessing Company Performance and Future Investment Plans

In this final paragraph, the speaker evaluates the performance of specific companies in their portfolio, such as Pepco and Autopartner. They discuss the factors influencing these companies' growth and the potential for future expansion. The speaker shares their plans for further investments and the importance of being selective in choosing companies with strong growth prospects. They also reflect on the overall performance of their portfolio, noting the challenges of comparing it to American indices and expressing optimism about the potential for continued growth in the Polish market.

Mindmap
Keywords
💡geopolitical risk
Geopolitical risk refers to the potential for changes in the political landscape to affect the stability and profitability of investments. In the video, the speaker discusses how Poland's geopolitical risk has decreased compared to 10-15 years ago, suggesting that the market may be overestimating this risk. This is relevant to the theme of the video as it influences investment decisions and the perceived value of the Polish stock market.
💡Polish stock market
The Polish stock market, or Giełda Papierów Wartościowych, is the central securities exchange in Poland. The speaker in the video mentions that the Polish stock market is currently undervalued, making it an attractive investment opportunity. This aligns with the video's focus on investment strategies and market analysis, particularly in the context of Poland's economic and political environment.
💡investment strategy
Investment strategy refers to the approach an investor takes to achieve their financial goals. In the video, the speaker outlines their strategy of investing in the Polish stock market, focusing on private companies with strong management and long-term growth potential. This keyword is central to the video as it guides the viewer on how to potentially benefit from market opportunities.
💡dividend policy
Dividend policy is the approach a company takes regarding the distribution of profits to shareholders. The speaker mentions the dividend policy of Orlen, a company that has decided to halt a capital-intensive project, potentially affecting its dividend payouts. This concept is important in the video as it influences the attractiveness of certain stocks for income-oriented investors.
💡market correction
A market correction is a short-term price decline in stocks and other securities, usually following a period of increased valuations. The speaker views the current trend in the Polish stock market as a long correction after a strong rally, suggesting that it may present buying opportunities. This concept is crucial for understanding the speaker's optimistic outlook on future market performance.
💡political instability
Political instability refers to situations where the political environment is uncertain or unstable, which can impact economic and market conditions. The video discusses how political instability in the past has affected Poland's geopolitical risk, but the speaker believes that current conditions are more stable, influencing their investment decisions.
💡earnings per share (EPS)
Earnings per share (EPS) is a financial metric that indicates the portion of a company's profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. The speaker uses EPS to evaluate the performance of companies in the WIG index, suggesting that the decline in EPS has justified the market correction. This metric is essential for assessing the value and potential of stocks in the speaker's investment strategy.
💡portfolio management
Portfolio management involves the selection and oversight of a mix of investments, including stocks, bonds, and other assets, to meet an investor's financial objectives. The speaker discusses their portfolio management approach, highlighting recent purchases and the rationale behind them. This concept is central to the video as it demonstrates how the speaker applies their investment strategy in practice.
💡market valuation
Market valuation refers to the process of determining the current worth of an asset or company in the market. The speaker argues that the Polish stock market is undervalued compared to its potential, making it an attractive investment opportunity. This concept is key to understanding the speaker's investment decisions and their outlook on future market performance.
💡economic growth
Economic growth is the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over time. The speaker mentions Poland's projected GDP growth, suggesting that it provides a favorable environment for investment. This concept is important in the video as it supports the speaker's optimistic view of the Polish market's potential.
Highlights

The speaker believes that Poland's geopolitical risk is currently less significant than it was 10-15 years ago, despite market overestimation.

The Polish stock market is described as undervalued and becoming increasingly attractive for investment.

The speaker discusses making new investments worth less than 12,000 zł and shares the reasons behind these choices.

A humorous musical interlude from a carpet shop is mentioned, adding a light-hearted touch to the episode.

The speaker reflects on the performance of the Polish stock market, noting its resilience despite challenges.

Orlen's decision to halt investments in the olefins project is cited as an example of political instability affecting capital efficiency.

The speaker focuses on private entities with better management and long-term growth potential, rather than state-owned enterprises.

The trend of the Polish stock market since May is considered a correction after a strong rally that began in October 2022.

The speaker speculates that foreign investors may be overly pessimistic about Poland's geopolitical risk.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is seen as revealing its weaknesses and strategic losses, benefiting Poland.

Poland's increased defense spending relative to GDP is highlighted as a strength.

The speaker sees opportunities for Polish companies to expand in Western markets, citing examples like Kruk and Budimex.

Despite global challenges like war and recession, Poland's GDP growth is satisfactory, with projections for future growth.

The speaker discusses the quality of Polish company management and the undervaluation of the market due to perceived risks.

The speaker shares their investment strategy, focusing on the Polish stock market and diversifying into other markets.

The speaker provides an overview of their investment portfolio, highlighting its performance and future plans.

The speaker reflects on the potential of the Polish stock market to outperform due to its current undervaluation.

The speaker discusses the impact of geopolitical and economic factors on investment decisions and market dynamics.

The speaker shares their thoughts on the future of the Polish and global markets, emphasizing the importance of strategic investing.

Transcripts

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Investment StrategiesPolish Stock MarketGeopolitical RisksMarket OpportunitiesFinancial AnalysisInvestor InsightsStock PurchasesEconomic GrowthCorporate ManagementPortfolio Management