Chauncey Billups , true shooting & skill curves | Scoring efficiency (NBA Stats 101, Part 2)

Thinking Basketball
11 Sept 201911:27
EducationalLearning
32 Likes 10 Comments

TLDRThis video script delves into the complexities of measuring basketball scoring efficiency, highlighting the limitations of traditional per-game statistics like points, rebounds, and assists. It emphasizes the importance of context, such as shooting efficiency, and explains how metrics like effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and true shooting percentage (TS%) provide a more accurate picture of a player's scoring efficiency. The script also discusses the impact of scoring volume on efficiency and how these metrics can be used to evaluate player and team performance, setting the stage for further exploration in subsequent parts of the series.

Takeaways
  • 🏀 The per game stats like points, rebounds, and assists can be misleading and lack context about a player's performance.
  • 🎯 Traditionally, field goal percentage was used to measure shooting efficiency, but it doesn't account for the value of two-point versus three-point shots.
  • 🔢 Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) is a more accurate measure that considers the points scored on field goal attempts and adjusts for the value of three-point shots.
  • ⚽ Free throws are not considered shot attempts, but they are crucial in calculating a player's scoring efficiency, which is why True Shooting Percentage (TS%) includes them.
  • 📊 TS% calculates points per scoring attempt and is a better indicator of a player's scoring efficiency than raw field goal percentage.
  • 📈 High-volume scoring often comes at the cost of efficiency, as players may take less optimal shots when they are asked to score more.
  • 📉 Conversely, reducing a player's scoring volume might not always result in a significant increase in efficiency.
  • 👤 The concept of 'skill curves' helps to understand the relationship between a player's scoring volume and their shooting efficiency.
  • 👥 While individual efficiency is important, it's also crucial to consider the context of teammates and opponents when evaluating performance.
  • 👨‍👨‍👦‍👦 True Shooting Percentage does not directly apply to team efficiency as a team's possessions can end in ways other than scoring attempts.
  • 📚 The script suggests that further context and statistics are needed to fully understand and evaluate basketball performance, which will be explored in subsequent parts of the series.
Q & A

  • Why can per game statistics like points, rebounds, and assists be misleading in basketball?

    -Per game statistics can be misleading because they lack context about how the points are scored and do not account for factors like shooting efficiency, shot selection, and the value of different types of shots (twos vs. threes).

  • What is the basic way to contextualize points scored in basketball?

    -The basic way to contextualize points is by looking at shooting efficiency, which considers how many shots a player took to score a certain number of points.

  • Why might field goal percentage not be a complete measure of scoring efficiency?

    -Field goal percentage does not account for whether shots were two-point or three-point attempts. Since three-pointers are worth more, a player shooting a lower field goal percentage from three-point range can still be as efficient as a player with a higher percentage from two-point range.

  • What is effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and how does it improve upon traditional field goal percentage?

    -Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) is a metric that adjusts for the fact that three-point field goals are worth more than two-point field goals. It provides a more accurate measure of a player's scoring efficiency by taking into account the points scored on field goal attempts and converting them to the two-point percentage needed to generate the same number of points.

  • How does true shooting percentage differ from effective field goal percentage?

    -True shooting percentage incorporates both field goals and free throws into its calculation. It measures points per scoring attempt and converts all shot types to a 'true' two-point field goal percentage needed to score the same number of points per attempt, providing a more comprehensive measure of scoring efficiency.

  • Why is it important to consider free throws when evaluating scoring efficiency?

    -Free throws are scoring opportunities that do not register as shot attempts. They can significantly impact a player's overall scoring efficiency, as making free throws can be as valuable as making a two-point shot, especially in terms of points per scoring attempt.

  • How does Magic Johnson's scoring efficiency in 1991 illustrate the importance of true shooting percentage?

    -Magic Johnson had a league-average field goal percentage in 1991, but when accounting for his three-pointers and free-throws, he was one of the most efficient scorers in the game with a 62% true shooting percentage. This shows that true shooting percentage provides a more accurate picture of a player's scoring efficiency than raw field goal percentage.

  • What is the normal distribution of scoring efficiency across NBA players, and what does it indicate?

    -The normal distribution of scoring efficiency shows most players clustered around the league average, with standout players being 8 to 10 percent ahead of the league. This indicates that shooting efficiency is dependent on league norms and suggests that players should be compared across seasons using their percentages relative to the league average.

  • How does true shooting percentage handle situations like 'and-one' plays?

    -True shooting percentage can account for 'and-one' plays, as it estimates the number of scoring attempts by considering both field goal attempts and free throws. While the estimator can be slightly off in individual games, over many games, a player's estimated true shooting attempts will closely match their actual attempts.

  • What is the relationship between scoring volume and efficiency, and how does it vary among players?

    -There is a nonlinear relationship between scoring volume and efficiency. As players are asked to score more, their efficiency often decreases due to less discriminant shot selection and increased defensive pressure. However, the extent of this decrease varies among players, with some being able to maintain higher efficiency at higher volumes than others.

  • Why might a team benefit from a high-volume scorer even if their efficiency is lower?

    -A team might benefit from a high-volume scorer because they provide scoring and an offensive focal point, which can help keep the team competitive, especially if the team lacks other scoring options. These players are often referred to as 'floor raisers'.

  • How does true shooting percentage apply to team-level analysis, and what are its limitations?

    -While true shooting percentage can provide some insights at the team level, it is not ideal for measuring a team's offensive efficiency. This is because a team's possessions can end with turnovers or be extended by offensive rebounds, which are not captured by true shooting percentage.

Outlines
00:00
🏀 Understanding Basketball Efficiency Metrics

The first paragraph discusses the limitations of per game averages like points, rebounds, and assists in evaluating a basketball player's performance. It highlights how Michael Adams' per game stats in 1991 were misleading. The script explains that shooting efficiency is a better metric, but traditional measures like field goal percentage can be incomplete due to not accounting for the value of two-point versus three-point shots. It introduces effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and true shooting percentage (TS%) as more accurate measures of scoring efficiency, considering field goals, three-pointers, and free throws. The example of Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace illustrates the difference between shooting percentages and points per shot attempt, emphasizing the importance of context in evaluating a player's scoring efficiency.

05:00
📊 The Importance of True Shooting Percentage in Scoring Efficiency

The second paragraph emphasizes the importance of true shooting percentage (TS%) over field goal percentage for assessing a player's scoring efficiency. It clarifies that TS% accounts for all scoring attempts, including two-pointers, three-pointers, and free-throws, providing a more comprehensive picture. The paragraph compares Magic Johnson and Michael Adams' scoring efficiencies in 1991, showing how Johnson was more efficient despite similar field goal percentages. It also discusses the distribution of TS% across the league and how it's dependent on league norms, suggesting that players should be compared relative to the league average. The paragraph touches on the concept of 'and ones' and how TS% can still provide an accurate estimate of a player's efficiency, even with these additional complexities. It concludes by discussing the relationship between scoring volume and efficiency, introducing the concept of 'skill curves' and how different players have different capacities for maintaining efficiency at varying volumes of scoring.

10:02
📈 Scoring Efficiency and Its Context in Basketball Analytics

The third paragraph wraps up the discussion on scoring efficiency by reiterating the importance of true shooting percentage as the gold standard for player efficiency. It points out that while effective field goal percentage is better than field goal percentage, it still doesn't account for free throws. The paragraph also addresses the nonlinear relationship between scoring volume and efficiency, suggesting that high volume and high efficiency scoring is ideal but that volume scoring at league average can also be beneficial for non-elite offenses. It mentions the concept of 'floor raisers' and how players like Allen Iverson, despite being inefficient, provided value due to their scoring volume. The paragraph concludes by stating that while individual player efficiency is important, team-level efficiency is measured differently and will be discussed in a future installment. It also invites viewers to explore further resources for a deeper understanding of the concepts discussed.

Mindmap
Keywords
💡Per Game Slash Line
The 'Per Game Slash Line' refers to the traditional statistical measure in basketball that includes points, rebounds, and assists per game played. In the context of the video, it is criticized for being misleading as it doesn't provide enough context to accurately assess a player's performance. For example, Michael Adams' high per game averages in 1991 made him appear to be an all-time level point guard, but further analysis was needed to understand the efficiency and context of his performance.
💡Shooting Efficiency
Shooting Efficiency is a measure of how effectively a basketball player scores points relative to the number of shots taken. The video explains that traditional measures like field goal percentage have limitations, as they do not account for the value of two-point versus three-point shots. Shooting efficiency is central to the video's theme of understanding player performance beyond basic statistics.
💡Field Goal Percentage (FG%)
Field Goal Percentage (FG%) is the ratio of successful field goals to the total number of field goal attempts. It has been the traditional metric for measuring shooting efficiency in basketball. However, the video points out that FG% can be misleading because it does not differentiate between two-point and three-point shots, which have different point values.
💡Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) is a more nuanced metric that adjusts for the fact that three-point field goals are worth more than two-point field goals. It is calculated by adding half the number of three-point field goals made to the total number of two-point field goals made, then dividing by the total field goal attempts. The video uses eFG% to illustrate that a player like Chauncey Billups, despite a lower FG%, could be a more efficient scorer due to his three-point shooting.
💡True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is a basketball statistic that takes into account field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws to provide a more accurate measure of a player's scoring efficiency. It is calculated by dividing the total points scored by the number of scoring attempts (field goal attempts plus 0.44 times free throw attempts). The video emphasizes TS% as the gold standard for player efficiency because it accounts for all forms of scoring, providing a comprehensive view of a player's scoring ability.
💡Scoring Attempts
Scoring Attempts is a term used to describe the total number of opportunities a player has to score, which includes both field goal attempts and free throw attempts. The video explains that understanding scoring attempts is crucial for evaluating a player's efficiency because it accounts for all the ways a player can score points, not just field goals.
💡Skill Curves
Skill Curves is a concept introduced by Dean Oliver, a pioneer in basketball analytics, to describe the relationship between a player's scoring volume and efficiency. The video mentions skill curves to illustrate how some players can maintain their efficiency even as their scoring volume increases, while others may see a decline in efficiency with increased volume.
💡Volume Scoring
Volume Scoring refers to the total number of points a player scores in a game. The video discusses the trade-off between volume and efficiency, suggesting that while high volume and high efficiency are ideal, sometimes a team might benefit from high volume scoring even if it comes at the cost of some efficiency.
💡And-Ones
An 'And-One' in basketball occurs when a player makes a successful field goal and is fouled during the shot, resulting in an additional free throw attempt. The video discusses how true shooting percentage can account for and-ones, which might seem to distort shooting percentages but are actually incorporated into the calculation of true shooting percentage over many games.
💡Offensive Efficiency
Offensive Efficiency in basketball is a measure of how effectively a team scores points per possession. While the video does not provide a detailed definition, it suggests that true shooting percentage is not the best measure for team offense because it does not account for turnovers and offensive rebounds, which also end possessions.
Highlights

Per game statistics like points, rebounds, and assists can be misleading and lack context.

Field goal percentage was traditionally used to measure shooting efficiency but has limitations.

Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) accounts for two-point and three-point shots, providing a more accurate measure of efficiency.

Free throws are not considered shot attempts, which is why True Shooting Percentage (TS%) was developed.

TS% calculates points per scoring attempt, incorporating both field goals and free throws.

True Shooting Percentage is more accurate than field goal percentage for evaluating a player's scoring efficiency.

High-volume scoring can sometimes be valuable even if it comes at the cost of efficiency.

Efficiency can vary depending on the player's role and the team's needs.

True Shooting Percentage is not ideal for measuring team efficiency due to its limitations in accounting for turnovers and offensive rebounds.

Skill curves describe the relationship between a player's scoring volume and their efficiency.

True Shooting Percentage can handle situations like and-ones, estimating the number of scoring attempts accurately over many games.

There is a nonlinear relationship between scoring volume and efficiency, which varies from player to player.

High-volume, high-efficiency scoring is ideal, but volume scoring at league average can also be beneficial for non-elite offenses.

True Shooting Percentage is the gold standard for measuring player efficiency, as it accounts for the value of all shot types.

Further context is needed to fully understand scoring numbers and other stats, which will be explored in part 3 of the series.

Resources are provided for those interested in a deeper dive into the concepts discussed in the video.

Transcripts

Browse More Related Video

NBA Advanced Stats for DUMMIES

The “Advanced” box score explained | Pace & Four Factors (NBA Stats 101 Part 3)

There's no such thing as a "30-point" scorer

Why are Advanced Analytics useful in the NBA? | NBA Stats 101

Points per game, rebounds & assists | The Michael Adams corollary (NBA Stats 101, Part 1)

Measuring impact in basketball | Plus minus & RAPM

Rate This

5.0 / 5 (0 votes)

Thanks for rating:

Related Tags
Basketball EfficiencyShooting MetricsTrue ShootingField Goal PercentageScoring ContextPlayer AnalysisStatistical InsightEfficiency DebateTeam PerformanceAnalytical Basketball