There's no such thing as a "30-point" scorer

Thinking Basketball
12 Nov 202112:43
EducationalLearning
32 Likes 10 Comments

TLDRThis video script explores the nuances of basketball statistics, focusing on Kevin Durant's scoring numbers and their relation to his teammates. It challenges the traditional points per game metric, arguing that a player's scoring efficiency and role on the court are influenced by the presence of other stars. The script delves into Durant's performance with and without MVP point guards like Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry, highlighting how his scoring volume and shooting percentages fluctuate accordingly. It emphasizes that basketball statistics are not isolated and that the contributions of teammates significantly impact a player's stats and overall value, suggesting a more complex understanding of player performance is needed.

Takeaways
  • πŸ€ Kevin Durant's scoring average declined when he joined the Golden State Warriors, but this doesn't necessarily mean he was a worse scorer.
  • πŸ“Š Traditional basketball statistics like points per game can be misleading and don't always reflect a player's true scoring ability.
  • πŸ” Durant's scoring efficiency and volume were significantly influenced by whether he played alongside other MVP-caliber point guards like Russell Westbrook or Stephen Curry.
  • πŸ“ˆ When Durant played without Westbrook or Curry, his scoring average and efficiency increased, suggesting he took on a larger offensive role.
  • πŸ“‰ Conversely, when playing with these stars, Durant's scoring volume decreased, but his efficiency often improved due to better shot opportunities.
  • 🌟 Durant's scoring ability is best represented by considering both scenarios: high volume with lower efficiency and lower volume with higher efficiency.
  • πŸ€” The concept of a '30 point per game scorer' is not as straightforward as it seems, as it depends on the context of the player's teammates and the game situation.
  • πŸ’ͺ Offensive load, which combines scoring and playmaking, is a more comprehensive measure of a player's offensive contribution than just points per game.
  • πŸ‘₯ The presence of other stars on the court significantly affects Durant's offensive load, with him taking on a larger role when fewer stars are present.
  • πŸ”„ Durant's performance and statistics are highly influenced by the offensive burden he carries, which fluctuates based on his teammates' presence.
  • 🌍 Basketball is a team sport where the performance of one player is intertwined with the contributions and abilities of the other players on the court.
Q & A
  • What was Kevin Durant's scoring average in the NBA for the 2014 season?

    -Kevin Durant led the NBA in scoring in 2014 with an average of 32 points per game.

  • How did Kevin Durant's scoring average change when he joined the Golden State Warriors?

    -After joining the Golden State Warriors, Durant's scoring average declined, which some attribute to playing alongside other high-scoring teammates.

  • What is the significance of points per game as a measure of a player's scoring ability?

    -Points per game is a traditional measure of scoring ability, but it has limitations and does not always reflect a player's overall contribution to the game.

  • Why did Durant's scoring average increase in the 2014 season?

    -Durant's scoring average increased in 2014 because he played nearly half the season without Russell Westbrook, who was injured, allowing Durant to take on a higher scoring load.

  • How does playing alongside other MVP point guards impact Durant's scoring volume?

    -Playing alongside MVP point guards like Westbrook and Curry typically results in Durant scoring less because they attract defensive attention and create more open looks for Durant.

  • What is the term used to describe Durant's scoring volume when playing without Westbrook or Curry?

    -When Durant played without Westbrook or Curry, his scoring volume was referred to as being over 30 points per 75 possessions.

  • What is 'offensive load' and how does it measure a player's involvement in offense?

    -Offensive load is a metric that combines scoring and playmaking to estimate a player's heavy lifting on offense, reflecting their direct involvement in possessions.

  • How does the presence of other stars on the court affect Durant's offensive load?

    -When Durant played with other offensive stars, his offensive load dropped below 40, indicating that he was involved in fewer possessions compared to when he was the lone star on the court.

  • What is the role of teammates in influencing a player's statistics and overall value?

    -Teammates play a significant role in influencing a player's statistics and overall value by affecting the number of opportunities a player has to score, assist, or rebound.

  • How does the concept of 'gravity' apply to players like Stephen Curry?

    -The concept of 'gravity' refers to a player's ability to draw defensive attention, like Curry, which can create more opportunities for teammates without necessarily having the ball.

  • What is the takeaway from the analysis of Durant's scoring and offensive load?

    -The key takeaway is that a player's scoring average and offensive load can vary greatly depending on the context, such as the presence of other stars on the court, and should not be viewed in isolation.

Outlines
00:00
πŸ€ Kevin Durant's Scoring Impact by Team Context

This paragraph discusses the influence of team context on Kevin Durant's scoring averages. In 2014, Durant led the NBA in scoring with 32 points per game. However, his scoring declined when he joined the Golden State Warriors, which some might attribute to a decrease in scoring ability. The paragraph refutes this by explaining that Durant's scoring volume and efficiency varied depending on whether he played alongside other MVP point guards like Russell Westbrook or Stephen Curry. When Durant played without Westbrook or Curry, his scoring volume was around 30 points per 75 possessions, but it dropped to under 28 when playing with them. The paragraph emphasizes that basketball statistics are heavily influenced by teammates and opponents, and Durant's scoring efficiency improved when playing with Westbrook or Curry due to the open looks created by their defensive attention. The conclusion suggests that Durant's scoring ability is not singularly defined by his points per game but by the context in which he plays.

05:01
πŸ“Š Understanding Offensive Load and Player Impact

The second paragraph delves into the concept of offensive load, which combines scoring and playmaking to measure a player's contribution to the offense. The discussion centers on how Durant's offensive involvement changes with the presence of other stars on the court. With Curry or Westbrook, Durant's load was between 40 to 45 percent, which is quite high historically. However, without them, his load increased significantly, indicating a greater responsibility in the offense. The paragraph also explores how Durant's load varies depending on the number of stars he shares the court with, noting that his load was highest when he was the lone star. The importance of understanding a player's offensive bandwidth is highlighted, with the example of how players like Klay Thompson can increase their load effectively when needed. The paragraph concludes by emphasizing that a player's value is not solely determined by their statistics but also by their ability to contribute meaningfully to the team's offense, which can be influenced by their teammates' capabilities.

10:02
🌌 Stephen Curry's Unique Off-Ball Impact

The final paragraph focuses on Stephen Curry's unique impact on the game, particularly his off-ball value. It explains that Curry's gravitational pull on defenses, even without the ball, allows him to contribute significantly to the team's offense without needing to handle the ball. Thisζ— ε½’ηš„εΌ•εŠ› expands the team's offensive capacity, creating more opportunities for his teammates. The paragraph suggests that if Curry's off-ball impact could be statistically captured, it would show that he enhances the overall offensive potential of the team. The discussion also touches on the importance of players who can add value away from the point of attack, such as through spacing or offensive rebounding, which can increase the team's overall effectiveness. The paragraph concludes by reinforcing the idea that a player's stats and overall value are heavily influenced by their teammates and the system within which they play.

Mindmap
Keywords
πŸ’‘Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant is a professional basketball player who has played for various teams in the NBA, including the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Golden State Warriors. In the video script, Durant's scoring statistics and his performance in different team contexts are analyzed to illustrate how a player's stats can be influenced by their teammates and the overall team dynamics.
πŸ’‘Scoring
Scoring in basketball refers to the act of accumulating points through various means such as field goals, free throws, and three-pointers. The script discusses Durant's scoring averages in different seasons and how it can be misleading to judge a player's scoring ability solely based on points per game.
πŸ’‘Points Per Game (PPG)
Points Per Game is a statistic that measures the average number of points a player scores in each game they play. The script challenges the traditional focus on PPG by showing that Durant's scoring efficiency and impact on games cannot be fully captured by this metric alone.
πŸ’‘Efficiency
Efficiency in basketball often refers to a player's ability to score points relative to the number of shots they take. The script mentions Durant's efficiency when playing with and without certain teammates, suggesting that efficiency is a more telling measure of a player's scoring ability than raw points.
πŸ’‘Usage Rate
Usage Rate is a statistic that estimates the percentage of team plays used by a player while they are on the court. The script uses Durant's Usage Rate to show how it changes depending on whether he is playing with other star players or as the primary scorer.
πŸ’‘Offensive Load
Offensive Load is a concept that combines scoring and playmaking to estimate a player's overall contribution to their team's offense. The script discusses how Durant's Offensive Load varies when he is the sole star on the court versus when he shares the court with other offensive stars like Stephen Curry.
πŸ’‘Teammates
Teammates are the other players on a basketball team who play alongside an individual. The script emphasizes the significant impact teammates can have on a player's statistics, particularly in the case of Durant, whose scoring and efficiency are shown to be influenced by playing with other MVP-caliber players.
πŸ’‘MVP Point Guards
MVP Point Guards refers to point guards who have won the Most Valuable Player award in the NBA, indicating exceptional skill and impact on the game. The script mentions Durant playing with MVP point guards like Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry, and how this affects his scoring and overall performance.
πŸ’‘Three-Point Shooting
Three-Point Shooting is the act of shooting from beyond the three-point line, which is a designated area on the basketball court where successful shots are worth three points. The script provides Durant's three-point shooting percentages to demonstrate how his shooting efficiency can be affected by the presence of his teammates.
πŸ’‘Offensive Burden
Offensive Burden refers to the responsibility a player has to contribute to their team's offense, either through scoring, creating plays, or drawing defensive attention. The script uses the concept of Offensive Burden to discuss how Durant's role and impact on the game change depending on who else is on the court with him.
πŸ’‘Gravity
In the context of basketball, 'gravity' refers to a player's ability to attract defensive attention, which can create open shots for teammates. The script highlights Stephen Curry's gravitational effect on the game, which indirectly impacts Durant's scoring opportunities and overall offensive load.
Highlights

In 2014, Kevin Durant led the NBA in scoring at 32 points per game.

Durant missed most of the 2015 season but scored 28 points per game in 2016.

Adjusting for league averages, Durant scored 30 points per 75 possessions in 2016.

Durant's scoring declined when he joined Golden State, contrary to the claim that it was 'irrefutable proof' of being a worse scorer.

The classic slash line (points, rebounds, assists) has problems and is fading in popularity.

Durant's scoring volume was about 30 points per 75 without an MVP point guard and under 28 with one.

Durant's efficiency increased significantly when playing without Russell Westbrook.

Basketball statistics are influenced by the other nine players on the court, not just individual ability.

Durant's scoring and shooting percentages varied significantly depending on whether he played with Westbrook or Curry.

Offensive load, which combines scoring and playmaking, is a better measure of a player's involvement on offense.

Durant's offensive load varied greatly depending on whether he played with Curry or Westbrook.

Clay Thompson is a tertiary star who can carry an above-average load even next to MVP teammates.

Some players have more flexible offensive loads than others, which affects their performance and value.

Off-ball value like Curry's is important because it comes with no opportunity cost and expands the system's capacity.

The idea of a 30 point per game scorer is fuzzy and influenced by the context of other players on the court.

Heavy lifters on the court influence each other, while role players orbit around them.

The podcast 'Thinking Basketball' goes deeper into examples of players modulating their load next to other stars.

Transcripts
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