Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained

Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell
9 Oct 201405:45
EducationalLearning
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TLDRThe video script discusses the perception of violence and war in the modern world, contrasting current conflicts with historical trends. Despite ongoing strife, such as ISIS's brutality, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the script argues that we are living in one of the most peaceful times in human history. It highlights that most current conflicts are civil wars or local disputes rather than wars between nations. The script credits the decline in interstate wars to the end of colonialism and the Cold War, the rise of democracy, globalization, changing views on warfare, and the establishment of international norms and borders. It also notes the increase in negotiated settlements over military victories in conflicts. While acknowledging that it's too early to declare a permanent end to war, the script encourages optimism and activism for peace and democracy.

Takeaways
  • 📉 Despite ongoing conflicts like those involving ISIS, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, global trends show a decline in warfare.
  • 🌍 As of September 2014, there were fewer than 20 conflicts causing significant loss of life, and none were active wars between countries.
  • 😢 Civil wars and local conflicts, while devastating, generally have a smaller impact than wars between nations due to limited resources and scope.
  • ❄️ The end of colonialism and the Cold War has significantly reduced the number of conflicts driven by these historical factors.
  • 💸 Multinational corporations' actions in developing countries are not equivalent to the past horrors of colonialism, which were far more brutal and exploitative.
  • 🏛️ Most current conflicts are in areas that were under foreign control 60 years ago, highlighting the lingering effects of colonial rule.
  • 🤝 The rarity of victories in civil wars and the rise in negotiated endings suggest a shift towards peaceful conflict resolution.
  • 🗳️ Democratisation plays a key role in reducing warfare, as democracies rarely engage in wars with each other.
  • 🌐 Globalisation has made warfare less effective for economic gain, with trade being a more cost-effective strategy.
  • 📜 The perception of war has changed, with international law and the UN Security Council providing frameworks that discourage aggression.
  • 🔍 While territorial disputes have largely been resolved post-World War II, the long-term trend towards peace is still uncertain and requires further historical context to confirm.
  • 🌟 If no major wars occur in the next 75 years, it would provide strong evidence that humanity is indeed moving towards a more peaceful era.
Q & A

  • What is the current trend in the number of wars and global population?

    -Despite ongoing conflicts, the trend indicates that we live in the most peaceful period in human history with war seemingly going out of fashion while the global population is at an all-time high.

  • What was the number of conflicts causing significant deaths as of September 2014?

    -As of September 2014, there were 4 conflicts causing at least 10,000 deaths since January 2013, 9 conflicts that killed more than 1,000 people, and 13 that killed more than 100 people.

  • Why is the impact of current conflicts considered smaller compared to wars between nations or empires?

    -The current conflicts are mostly civil wars or local conflicts, which, although terrible, usually have a smaller impact than wars between nations or empires that can mobilize larger forces and resources.

  • What major change occurred after the Cold War that reduced armed conflicts?

    -The end of the Cold War removed a major driver of armed conflicts. However, the breakup of communist dictatorships revealed new or old tensions, leading to new conflicts and civil wars in the freed states.

  • How was colonialism different from the actions of multinational corporations in the third world today?

    -Colonialism, as exemplified by the Belgian rule in Congo, was characterized by extreme violence, exploitation, and mass deaths. It was much worse than what is referred to as 'vulture capitalism' today and ended only two generations ago.

  • What has changed regarding civil wars since 1989?

    -Since 1989, victories in civil wars have become much rarer, while negotiated endings have increased from 10% to almost 40%.

  • What are the four major reasons given for the decrease in wars between nation-states?

    -The four major reasons are democratisation, globalisation, the perception of war as a 20th-century relic, and the fixing of borders after World War II.

  • Why do democracies hardly ever fight each other?

    -Democracies tend to resolve conflicts through diplomatic means rather than through warfare, and there has not been a recorded case of two democracies engaging in a war against each other.

  • How has globalisation affected the effectiveness of war in achieving economic goals?

    -Globalisation has made it more cost-effective to purchase resources on the global market than to seize them by force, making war less effective as a means to achieve economic goals.

  • What is the current international stance on acts of aggression?

    -Acts of aggression are now considered illegal under international law, and the use of armed forces is justified only in self-defence or with the authority of the UN Security Council.

  • Why is it difficult to determine if we are on the road to lasting peace?

    -We do not have a large enough sample size post-World War II to rule out the historical average of one or two major wars per century, making it uncertain whether war is truly becoming a thing of the past.

  • What can individuals do to contribute to a more peaceful world?

    -Individuals can make a difference by advocating for peace and democracy, and by supporting actions and policies that promote these values globally.

Outlines
00:00
🌍 The Decline of War and the Rise of Peace

This paragraph discusses the seeming paradox of ongoing violent conflicts like those by ISIS, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, against the backdrop of a world that is statistically more peaceful than ever before. Despite the grim reality of current conflicts, the speaker argues that war is becoming less frequent, especially between nation-states. The paragraph outlines the number of conflicts and their nature, highlighting that none are active wars between countries, but rather civil or local conflicts with a smaller impact. It also touches on the historical transition from colonialism and the Cold War, which were significant drivers of conflict, to a more peaceful global order. The paragraph further emphasizes the devastating effects of colonial rule, using the example of the Belgian Congo, and contrasts it with the less severe impact of modern multinational corporations in the third world. Finally, it notes the increasing rarity of victories in civil wars and the rise in negotiated peace settlements, suggesting an overall improvement in conflict resolution.

05:00
🕊️ The Path to Lasting Peace

The second paragraph delves into the reasons behind the decline in interstate wars and the potential for a lasting peace. It suggests four major factors contributing to this trend: democratization, where the development of democracies has led to fewer wars between democratic nations; globalization, which has made war less effective for achieving economic goals as resources can often be acquired more cheaply through trade; a shift in perspective on war, with aggression now being illegal and armed force only justified in self-defense or with UN approval; and the stabilization of borders, with most countries accepting international borders and respecting national sovereignty post-World War II. The paragraph acknowledges that while these factors are promising, it is too early to conclude definitively whether humanity is on an irreversible path to peace, as the historical average of major wars per century has not yet been surpassed since World War II. It ends on a hopeful note, encouraging advocacy for peace and democracy to further improve global conditions.

Mindmap
Keywords
💡Violence
Violence refers to the use of physical force with the intention of causing harm or injury. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the brutal actions of groups like ISIS and the ongoing conflicts in various parts of the world. The video suggests that despite the presence of violence, we may actually be living in one of the most peaceful times in human history when considering the overall trend and scale of conflicts.
💡War
War is a state of armed conflict between different nations or states. The video discusses the decline in wars, particularly those between nation-states, and highlights that current conflicts are more often civil wars or local disputes. The shift from interstate wars to internal conflicts is presented as a positive development, as civil wars generally have a smaller impact than wars between countries.
💡Civil Wars
Civil wars are armed conflicts within a country involving factions seeking to control the government or achieve separation. The video points out that while civil wars are devastating, they are generally less impactful on a global scale than wars between nations. It also notes a shift from victories in civil wars to more negotiated endings, which is a positive sign for peace.
💡Colonialism
Colonialism is the policy or practice of acquiring full or partial control over the territory, resources, and people of another country. The video uses the historical example of Belgian Congo to illustrate the extreme violence and exploitation associated with colonialism. It contrasts this with the present, suggesting that while multinational corporations may have significant influence, their actions do not equate to the level of harm caused by colonial powers.
💡Cold War
The Cold War was a period of geopolitical tension between the Soviet Union and the United States and their respective allies, from the end of World War II until the early 1990s. The video suggests that the end of the Cold War removed a significant driver of armed conflicts and contributed to the decline in wars between nation-states.
💡Democratisation
Democratisation is the process of transitioning from an autocratic or non-democratic form of government to a democratic one. The video argues that the development of democracies is one of the reasons for the decline in wars, as democracies are less likely to engage in armed conflicts with one another.
💡Globalisation
Globalisation refers to the increasing interconnectedness of countries and people through trade, culture, communication, and technology. The video posits that globalisation has made war less effective as a means to achieve economic goals, as it is often more cost-effective to trade for resources rather than to seize them through conflict.
💡Aggression
Aggression, in the context of the video, refers to the act of initiating an unprovoked attack or conflict. The video discusses how international rules and norms have evolved to declare acts of aggression illegal, making it more difficult for nations to engage in war without facing opposition and disapproval.
💡UN Security Council
The UN Security Council is one of the six major organs of the United Nations, charged with the maintenance of international peace and security. The video mentions the UN Security Council as an authority that can legitimize the use of armed force, reflecting a shift towards a more regulated and legal approach to international conflicts.
💡Borders
Borders are the geographical boundaries that separate different nations or states. The video notes that after World War II, there was a general acceptance of international borders and respect for the autonomy of other nations, which helped to reduce territorial wars.
💡Peace and Democracy
Peace and democracy are presented in the video as ideals that can contribute to a more stable and harmonious global society. The video encourages viewers to advocate for peace and democracy as a means to further improve the conditions around the world and to potentially move towards lasting peace.
Highlights

The brutality of ISIS, Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continue, yet war seems to be declining globally.

We are living in the most peaceful period in human history despite ongoing conflicts.

As of September 2014, there were 4 conflicts causing significant deaths, but none were active wars between countries.

Civil wars and local conflicts, while devastating, have a smaller impact compared to wars between nations.

The end of the Cold War and colonialism has reduced the number of conflicts between nation-states.

The breakup of communist dictatorships has led to new conflicts, often resulting in civil wars.

Colonialism was far worse than modern multinational corporations' practices in the third world.

Most current conflicts are in areas that were under foreign control 60 years ago.

Victory in civil wars has become rarer, with negotiated endings increasing from 10% to almost 40%.

Nation-states have stopped attacking each other due to democratization, globalization, and changing views on warfare.

Democracies rarely fight each other, and wars between them are uncommon since 1900.

Globalization has made war less effective for achieving economic goals compared to trade on the global market.

Modern warfare is seen as outdated, with international laws and the UN Security Council regulating the use of force.

Borders have become more fixed since World War II, reducing territorial wars.

It is uncertain if the current peace is an anomaly or a lasting trend, with not enough time post-WWII to determine.

If no major war occurs in the next 75 years, it would suggest a significant change in human behavior towards conflict.

Despite ongoing conflicts, overall, conditions are improving, and advocating for peace and democracy can contribute to further progress.

Transcripts

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War DeclineGlobal ConflictsCivil WarsPeace EraDemocratisationGlobalisationCold WarColonialismEconomic GoalsInternational LawBordersHuman HistoryPeace Advocacy