1917 Centennial Series: War, Revolution, Socialism, War. Stephen Kotkin

Daniel Benjamin, the director of the Dickey Center, opens the lecture by acknowledging the full attendance and the challenges of seating. He introduces the event as part of a series commemorating the centennial of 1917, focusing on the profound historical impacts of that year. The lecture series is a collaborative effort by several academic centers and departments. Benjamin thanks Professor Steven Hawkins for his perseverance in reaching the venue despite travel disruptions and sets the stage for a reconsideration of global politics and historical events.

Professor William Wolfforth acknowledges the audience's eagerness to hear from the main speaker, Stephen Kotkin, and briefly highlights Kotkin's accomplishments. Wolfforth emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between informed opinions and those based on deep, empirical research. He encourages the audience to look up Kotkin's work, particularly his biography of Stalin, known for its extensive research and depth. Kotkin is then welcomed to the stage with applause.

Stephen Kotkin begins his lecture by discussing the historical context leading to World War I and the Russian Revolution. He explains the British victory over the French for global dominance and the subsequent British-led global economy. Kotkin then describes the rise of Germany and Japan as significant powers in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, their industrialization, and their geopolitical aspirations. He also touches on the impact of the Meiji Restoration in Japan and the aftermath of the American Civil War.

Kotkin explains modernization as a geopolitical process rather than a sociological one. He describes how powerful nations impose their will on others, leading to a competitive environment where countries must match the technological and military capabilities of dominant powers to maintain sovereignty. He uses the Meiji Restoration in Japan as an example of a country that successfully modernized to avoid colonial status.

Kotkin dispels the notion that countries sleepwalked into World War I, arguing that there was significant preparation for war. He details how the war proved more catastrophic than anticipated, with high casualties and ineffective offensive strategies. He also discusses the British economic warfare plan and the German Schlieffen Plan, emphasizing the misconceptions surrounding the latter.

Following the war, Kotkin explains that avoiding further conflict became a strategic choice for global powers. However, Hitler's rise to power and his desire to revise the outcomes of World War I created a new set of challenges. Kotkin describes Hitler as a political entrepreneur who capitalized on the dissatisfaction with the post-war order. He also touches on the British strategy of avoiding war at all costs due to their global interests.

Kotkin highlights the two key aspects of the 1917 Russian Revolution: its anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist nature. He describes the widespread global support for the revolution, driven by a desire for social justice, peace, and abundance. However, he also notes the tragic outcome of the revolution, which led to tyranny rather than the promised freedoms.

The Soviet Union's anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist stance had a significant global impact, resonating with both Russian patriots and international anti-imperialist movements. Kotkin discusses the Soviet Union's identity as a unique civilization with a special mission, which positioned it as an alternative to the West. He also addresses the Soviet Union's security dilemma, where its claims of peaceful intentions were contradicted by its actions and rhetoric.

Kotkin examines the strategic choices faced by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, particularly his concerns about the potential spread of communism in Europe if the UK were to ally with the Soviet Union against Hitler. He also discusses the French position and their reluctance to form a serious alliance with the Soviet Union. Kotkin emphasizes the complexity of the political landscape leading to World War II.

Kotkin argues that the Russian Revolution of 1917 was a significant factor contributing to the outbreak of World War II. He discusses the complex geopolitical dynamics, including the Soviet-Japanese conflict and the scramble for power in Europe and Asia. He also highlights the role of the United States and the inevitability of its involvement in the war.

Kotkin delves into Stalin's approach to geopolitics, emphasizing his opportunistic behavior and his theory of 'socialism in one country.' He explains Stalin's belief in the potential for socialist revolutions following imperialist wars and his strategy to divert such conflicts away from the Soviet Union. Kotkin also discusses Stalin's significant territorial gains following the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany.

Kotkin evaluates Chamberlain's policy, which combined appeasement and deterrence. He notes that the deterrence aspect was de-emphasized due to economic constraints, leading to a more conciliatory approach. He also discusses the importance of credible deterrence in negotiations and the lack of trust in Stalin's promises.

Kotkin addresses the global context of World War II, including the roles of Italy, China, and the broader implications of the war. He emphasizes the complexity of the war's causes and the difficulty of preventing it given the structural factors in place. He also speculates on the potential outcomes if certain events in 1917 had not occurred.

Kotkin reflects on the post-World War II era, noting the remarkable transformations in Germany and Japan into democratic societies. He discusses the absence of great power wars during the Cold War and the Soviet Union's loss of the peace, attributing it to structural determinants. He also comments on the challenges of understanding the current world, particularly the resilience of the Chinese system.

In the concluding part of his lecture, Kotkin discusses the influence of 24/7 news cycles on perceptions of global threats and responses. He suggests that the constant stream of news may distort the understanding of the world's realities and challenges. He also touches on the resilience of the American system and the importance of understanding the resilience of the Chinese system for future global strategies.