Baltic Independence at 100

Alan Luxembourg, President of the Farm Policy Research Institute, opens the event celebrating the 100th anniversary of Baltic States' independence. He introduces the Baltic Initiative, a project within the larger Eurasia programme, and acknowledges the support from the JJ Med Vecas Foundation and the Martin and Audrey Gross Foundation. The Latvian Ambassador to the UN, Andres Fillat-Gorich, delivers welcoming remarks and reflects on Latvia's journey to statehood and the importance of international recognition and alliances.

Ambassador Fillat-Gorich delves into Latvia's historical context, including its struggle for independence and the challenges faced during World War I and II. He emphasizes the lessons learned from neutrality and the importance of strong alliances, particularly with the United States, NATO, and the European Union. The ambassador also highlights Latvia's commitment to international peacekeeping and its active role within the UN.

The ambassador discusses the significance of engaging with the world and having strong allies, as well as the importance of self-criticism and addressing painful historical events. He mentions Latvia's efforts to educate and commemorate its history, including the tragedies of the 20th century, and the need for international engagement and contribution.

Steve Kotkin, a historian and international affairs expert, provides an overview of the Baltic States' history through the lens of heroism, focusing on the peaceful protests and independence movements of the late 1980s and early 1990s. He contrasts the Baltic States' peaceful transition with the tragic events in Yugoslavia and the role of the Hitler-Stalin Pact in shaping the region's history.

Kotkin explores the geopolitical forces that influenced the Baltic States, including the impact of Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms, the role of Poland as an inspirational example, and the rise of Russian nationalism that contributed to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. He also discusses the complexities of the Baltic independence movements and the challenges of managing a multi-ethnic society.

The speaker contrasts the German occupation during World War I, characterized by cultural condescension and a lack of engagement with local populations, with the Soviet Union's approach, which despite its brutality, involved a degree of indigenization through the use of local languages for propaganda and recruitment. This unintended outcome provided a cultural foundation that could be leveraged by the Baltic States in their struggle for independence.

Kotkin draws parallels and contrasts between the histories of the Baltic States, Tibet, and Mongolia, highlighting the different outcomes of their struggles for independence. While the Baltic States managed to achieve and maintain their independence, Tibet was unable to gain international recognition, and Mongolia, despite suffering under Soviet rule, emerged as an independent state.

The speaker examines the Treaty of Versailles, critiquing its perceived punitive nature and the failure to involve Germany and Russia in its formation. He argues that the treaty's inability to account for the resurgence of these powers rendered it ineffective, setting the stage for World War II and illustrating the importance of considering geopolitical realities in international agreements.

Kotkin reflects on the post-1991 agreements that shaped the new world order, including the recognition of Russia's seat on the UN Security Council and the Budapest Memorandum. He criticizes the lack of commitment to these agreements, particularly in the face of Russian aggression, and calls for a realistic approach to geopolitics that acknowledges and manages the resurgence of Russian power.

In his closing remarks, Kotkin emphasizes the importance of honoring commitments and the need for a realistic approach to geopolitics. He suggests that the key to stability lies in maintaining strong alliances, particularly with Germany, and managing the resurgence of Russian power through a balanced and pragmatic foreign policy.

The lecture concludes with a discussion on the legacy of the Baltic States' fight for independence, the moral complexities of historical events, and the importance of overcoming the past. The speaker highlights the unique history of the Baltic States and the need to celebrate their achievements while acknowledging the challenges they have faced.