How to Evaluate MLB Pitchers with Stats: Baseball Tutorial

pfholden

14 Feb 202111:14

EducationalLearning

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TLDRThe video script offers a comprehensive guide to evaluating Major League pitchers using statistics from Fangraphs.com. It emphasizes the importance of understanding ERA (Earned Run Average) and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), and how they can be influenced by factors outside the pitcher's control. The video also highlights the significance of strikeout and walk rates, as well as the adjusted metrics ERA- and FIP-, which account for environmental factors. The presenter, a fan of Luis Castillo, uses his stats as an example to illustrate these concepts. The video aims to help viewers gain a basic understanding of pitcher evaluation without delving into the complexities of Statcast data or the math behind the stats.

Takeaways

📊 Focus on ERA (Earned Run Average) and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) for evaluating pitchers on fangraphs.com.
🏆 ERA is valuable but not the ultimate measure; it shows runs allowed per nine innings with only earned runs counted.
🔄 FIP aims to remove external factors, considering only walks, strikeouts, and home runs to provide a pitcher's 'true' performance level.
🔎 Compare a pitcher's ERA and FIP to their respective league averages to understand their effectiveness.
🌟 ERA- and FIP- adjust for the playing environment, showing how a pitcher's stats compare to the league average in their specific conditions.
⚾️ Strikeouts and walks are central to evaluating a pitcher's performance; prefer strikeout and walk percentages over raw numbers.
📉 Use the K-BB% (Strikeout minus Walk percentage) as an all-in-one metric for assessing a pitcher's control and skill.
📈 Refer to charts from MLB Trade Rumors or BaseballHQ for understanding what constitutes a good K-BB% in the current era.
🚫 Avoid using wins, losses, and saves as sole measures of a pitcher's ability, as they do not accurately reflect individual performance.
🔄 For a deeper analysis, consider pitcher-specific metrics like max exit velocity and batted ball data from Baseball Savant.
📊 Use ERA, FIP, ERA-, FIP-, and K-BB% on fangraphs.com to get a comprehensive understanding of a pitcher's performance.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the baseball tutorial in the transcript?
-The main focus of the baseball tutorial is to discuss pitching stats that can be used to evaluate Major League pitchers, specifically using Fangraphs.com as a resource.
Why does the speaker choose not to discuss Baseball Savant and Statcast data in this tutorial?
-The speaker chooses not to discuss Baseball Savant and Statcast data because they plan to cover it in a separate video and want to focus on other stats in this tutorial.
What does ERA (Earned Run Average) indicate in baseball?
-ERA indicates the average number of earned runs that are scored per nine innings by a pitcher.
What is the difference between ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)?
-ERA includes all runs scored when a pitcher is in the game, including unearned runs due to errors, while FIP excludes factors outside the pitcher's control and only considers walks, strikeouts, and home runs.
How does the speaker evaluate a pitcher's performance based on ERA and FIP?
-The speaker evaluates a pitcher's performance by comparing their ERA and FIP to the league average, and also by looking at the pitcher's ERA- and FIP- (adjusted for the park and the player's environment).
What does the speaker prefer instead of K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) and BB/9 (walks per nine innings)?
-The speaker prefers the percentage forms of strikeouts and walks over K/9 and BB/9 because they provide a more accurate representation of a pitcher's performance.
Why are strikeouts and walks considered the most important stats for evaluating pitchers?
-Strikeouts and walks are considered the most important because they are the aspects of pitching over which a pitcher has the most control, as opposed to what happens once a ball is in play.
What is the significance of strikeout-to-walk percentage (K-BB%)?
-K-BB% is an all-in-one number that combines strikeout and walk rates, providing a clear picture of a pitcher's ability to record strikeouts without issuing walks.
Where can one find a chart that provides insights into good strikeout rates, walk percentages, and K-BB%?
-One can find such a chart on BaseballHQ.com or through an article on MLBTradeRumors.com from January that includes the chart.
How does the speaker describe Luis Castillo's performance based on the discussed stats?
-The speaker describes Luis Castillo as a really good pitcher when it comes to strikeouts and walks, with a K-BB% closer to the 90th percentile than the 50th, indicating his elite performance in those areas.
What are the key stats the speaker recommends looking at on Fangraphs to get a basic feel for a pitcher's performance?
-The key stats the speaker recommends looking at on Fangraphs include ERA, FIP, ERA-, FIP-, and strikeout minus walk percentage (K-BB%).

Outlines

00:00

📊 Introduction to Baseball Pitching Stats

The video begins with an introduction to general baseball and the focus on pitching statistics to evaluate Major League pitchers. The speaker is on fangraphs.com, a valuable baseball resource, and clarifies that the discussion will not cover baseball savant or statcast data, nor the math behind the stats. Instead, the aim is to explain what the stats mean and their significance for a player's performance. The speaker plans to cover statcast and baseball savant in separate videos and starts with an example of Luis Castillo, a Cincinnati Reds pitcher, highlighting his change-up pitch.

05:03

📈 Understanding ERA and FIP

This paragraph delves into the specifics of two key pitching stats: ERA (Earned Run Average) and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). The speaker explains that ERA measures the number of earned runs given up by a pitcher and while it's valuable, it's not the best measure. FIP, on the other hand, attempts to remove factors outside the pitcher's control. The speaker uses Castillo's stats from 2020 as an example, showing that his FIP was lower than his ERA, indicating better performance in controllable aspects. The paragraph also discusses the importance of adjusting stats like ERA and FIP for the park and environment in which the player performs.

10:06

🥳 Evaluating Pitchers with K/BB Ratio

The speaker emphasizes the importance of strikeouts and walks in evaluating pitchers, preferring percentage rates over per nine innings stats. The paragraph introduces the concept of strikeout minus walk percentage (K-BB%) as a comprehensive measure for evaluating pitchers. A handy chart from baseballhq.com, referenced by MLB Trade Rumors, provides benchmarks for good K%, BB%, and K-BB%, adjusted for the current season. The speaker uses Castillo's stats to illustrate his effectiveness as a pitcher, particularly noting his high strikeout rate and slightly below-average walk rate, categorizing him as a solid, very good strikeout minus walk pitcher.

🎯 Key Stats for Fangraphs Analysis

In the final paragraph, the speaker wraps up the key points for evaluating pitchers using fangraphs.com. The focus is on ERA, FIP, their minus versions for environmental adjustment, and strikeout minus walk percentage. The speaker mentions other stats like max exit velocity and batted ball data, which are better accessed through baseball savant. The paragraph concludes with a summary of the approach to understanding the 'nuts and bolts' of a pitcher's performance without a deep dive, and invites viewers to share their own methods for analyzing pitchers on fangraphs.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Pitching Stats

Pitching stats are quantitative measures used to evaluate a baseball pitcher's performance. In the video, the focus is on understanding stats like ERA (Earned Run Average) and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which provide insights into a pitcher's effectiveness and ability to prevent runs. These stats are crucial for assessing a pitcher's contribution to their team's success.

💡ERA (Earned Run Average)

ERA is a traditional pitching statistic that calculates the average number of earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings pitched. While it provides a snapshot of a pitcher's performance, it includes factors outside the pitcher's control, such as errors by teammates. The video suggests that ERA is still valuable but should be considered with other metrics.

💡FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)

FIP is a sabermetric statistic designed to measure a pitcher's true talent level by focusing on aspects of their performance that they can control, such as walks, strikeouts, and home runs. It excludes external factors like defensive play, making it a more accurate reflection of a pitcher's ability. The video emphasizes FIP as a key stat for understanding a pitcher's performance.

💡Strikeout-Walk Percentage (K-BB%)

K-BB% is a pitching statistic that combines a pitcher's strikeout rate (the percentage of batters they strike out) and walk rate (the percentage of batters they walk). A lower K-BB% indicates better control and effectiveness, as it means the pitcher is striking out more batters relative to the number of walks they allow. This stat is crucial for evaluating a pitcher's ability to prevent baserunners.

💡Strikeout Percentage (K%)

Strikeout Percentage (K%) measures the percentage of batters a pitcher strikes out. It's a key indicator of a pitcher's ability to record strikeouts, which is a primary way of preventing runs. A higher K% is generally seen as more desirable, as it suggests dominance over batters.

💡Walk Percentage (BB%)

Walk Percentage (BB%) is the percentage of batters a pitcher walks. It's an important stat because walks can lead to runs by placing baserunners who can score, thus increasing the pitcher's run expectancy. A lower BB% is preferred, as it indicates better control and less susceptibility to giving away free passes.

💡ERA- (ERA minus)

ERA- (ERA minus) is an adjusted version of ERA that accounts for the park factors and the league's run-scoring environment. It adjusts the pitcher's ERA to a 100-point scale, where 100 represents the league average. This allows for a more accurate comparison of pitchers across different environments and ballparks.

💡xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching Park-Adjusted)

xFIP is a variant of FIP that includes park factors in its calculation, making it a more comprehensive measure of a pitcher's performance. It adjusts for the pitcher's home park, which can significantly influence the number of home runs allowed, a factor not included in the standard FIP calculation.

💡Max Exit Velocity

Max Exit Velocity refers to the highest speed at which a baseball is hit by a batter, as measured when the ball exits the bat. This metric is used to evaluate a pitcher's ability to prevent hard contact, as higher exit velocities often correlate with a higher likelihood of hits and extra-base hits.

💡Pitch Velocity

Pitch velocity measures the speed of a pitcher's throws. A higher pitch velocity generally indicates a greater ability to prevent batters from making solid contact with the ball, as it can be more difficult for batters to catch up to and hit fast-moving pitches.

💡Batted Ball Data

Batted Ball Data encompasses statistics related to how balls are hit, including line drive percentage, ground ball percentage, and other metrics that describe the type and trajectory of contact made by the batter. This data is valuable for understanding a pitcher's ability to induce weak contact or prevent solid hits.

Highlights

The tutorial focuses on using pitching stats to evaluate Major League pitchers.

The resource used for the tutorial is fangraphs.com, an invaluable baseball resource.

The tutorial will not cover baseball savant statcast data or the math behind the stats.

ERA (Earned Run Average) is still a valuable stat despite its limitations.

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a stat that removes external factors to evaluate a pitcher's performance.

A good ERA versus a bad ERA can fluctuate over time, similar to OPS (On-base Plus Slugging).

ERA and FIP are the primary stats to focus on when evaluating pitchers on fangraphs.com.

ERA minus and FIP minus adjust the stats for the park and the environment a player plays in.

Strikeouts and walks are key stats for evaluating a pitcher's performance.

K- (strikeouts per nine innings) and BB- (walks per nine innings) are better understood in percentage forms.

Wins, losses, and saves are not good measures of a pitcher's abilities.

K/BB (strikeout-to-walk ratio) is an important metric for assessing a pitcher's skill.

A chart from baseballhq.com provides a reference for good K%, BB%, and K-BB% rates.

Luis Castillo is used as an example of a pitcher with a good K-BB% but slightly below average walks.

The tutorial suggests focusing on ERA, FIP, ERA minus, FIP minus, and K-BB% for a basic feel of a pitcher's performance.

Bad batted ball data and pitch velocity are available on baseball savant and are important for deeper analysis.

The tutorial aims to provide a basic understanding of pitcher evaluation without a deep dive into statistics.

Transcripts

Browse More Related Video

PITCHING STATISTICS, ERA, FIP, WHIP, ERA+ - Baseball Basics

FIP IS THE MLB’s NEW ERA: The Best Pitching Statistic

Baseball Stats 101: ERA, FIP, WHIP Explained

Baseball Stats: Counting Stats

Baseball Advanced Stats Explained (Sort Of): Hitting

Baseball Stats: Rate and "Plus" Stats (OPS, wOBA, FIP, etc.)

How to Evaluate MLB Pitchers with Stats: Baseball Tutorial

Takeaways

Q & A

What is the main focus of the baseball tutorial in the transcript?

Why does the speaker choose not to discuss Baseball Savant and Statcast data in this tutorial?

What does ERA (Earned Run Average) indicate in baseball?

What is the difference between ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)?

How does the speaker evaluate a pitcher's performance based on ERA and FIP?

What does the speaker prefer instead of K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) and BB/9 (walks per nine innings)?

Why are strikeouts and walks considered the most important stats for evaluating pitchers?

What is the significance of strikeout-to-walk percentage (K-BB%)?

Where can one find a chart that provides insights into good strikeout rates, walk percentages, and K-BB%?

How does the speaker describe Luis Castillo's performance based on the discussed stats?

What are the key stats the speaker recommends looking at on Fangraphs to get a basic feel for a pitcher's performance?