FIP IS THE MLB’s NEW ERA: The Best Pitching Statistic

Simple Sabermetrics
25 Mar 202008:00
EducationalLearning
32 Likes 10 Comments

TLDRThe video discusses the flaws in common pitching statistics like wins, losses, ERA, and WHIP, emphasizing the need to focus on aspects within a player's control. It introduces FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as a superior metric that isolates the pitcher's performance from defensive factors. FIP considers home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts, and its calculation is detailed along with the adjustment for league averages. The video highlights the importance of using stats like FIP to accurately evaluate a pitcher's performance without team influence.

Takeaways
  • 📊 Wins and losses are flawed as a pitcher stat because they depend on the team's performance, not just the pitcher's actions.
  • 🏆 Earned Run Average (ERA) has limitations because it factors in the defense's performance, which can skew the pitcher's true ability.
  • ⚾️ WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched) is a step in the right direction but still relies on hits, which can be influenced by the defense.
  • 🥇 Strikeouts per 9, walks per 9, and WHIP are useful stats but still don't fully isolate the pitcher's performance from the defense.
  • 🔢 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is considered the best pitching statistic because it isolates the pitcher's performance from the defense.
  • 🏞️ FIP accounts for home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts, which are all within the pitcher's control and not affected by the defense.
  • 🌟 Expected FIP (xFIP) adjusts for home runs by using the league's average home run to fly ball ratio, further refining the stat.
  • 📈 The FIP constant is used to align FIP with the ERA scale, making it easier to compare and understand in the context of traditional stats.
  • 📊 FIP is valuable because it allows for a more accurate evaluation of a pitcher's performance without the influence of the team's defense.
  • 🏅 Top pitchers like Scherzer, Cole, and deGrom had excellent FIPs in 2019, showing their individual effectiveness on the mound.
  • 📝 Understanding and applying FIP can change the way we analyze and evaluate pitchers, focusing on individual performance rather than team outcomes.
Q & A

  • What is the main issue with using wins and losses as a statistic to evaluate pitchers?

    -Wins and losses as a statistic to evaluate pitchers is flawed because it includes factors outside of the pitcher's control, such as how their team hits on a given day, which can affect the pitcher's perceived performance over an entire season.

  • Why is ERA (Earned Run Average) not an accurate representation of a pitcher's performance?

    -ERA is not accurate because it includes the defense's ability to stop runs, which can vary from game to game. It depends on the talent of the defense and can involve elements of luck, making it an unreliable measure of a pitcher's individual performance.

  • What does WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched) measure?

    -WHIP measures how often a pitcher allows a batter to reach the base. While it is a simpler statistic to understand and occasionally used, it still relies on hits, which may not always indicate poor performance by the pitcher but could also reflect poor defense.

  • What are the three stats that are considered useful in evaluating a pitcher's performance over a long period of time?

    -The three useful stats for evaluating a pitcher's performance are strikeouts per 9 innings, walks per 9 innings, and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).

  • What does FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) stand for, and how does it differ from other pitching statistics?

    -FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It differs from other pitching statistics because it isolates the pitcher's performance separate from the defense behind them, focusing only on aspects within the pitcher's control, such as home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts.

  • How is the FIP constant calculated?

    -The FIP constant is calculated by taking the average ERA and subtracting the same equation used to find FIP but with league totals instead of an individual player's totals. This allows for a comparison on the same scale as ERA.

  • What is the purpose of the expected FIP (xFIP), and how does it adjust for home runs?

    -Expected FIP (xFIP) is a version of FIP that adjusts for home runs by replacing them with the number of fly balls a pitcher allows multiplied by the league's average home run to fly ball ratio. This helps eliminate external factors like park factors and weather conditions, ensuring a more accurate representation of the pitcher's performance.

  • Why is it important to focus on stats that a player can control when analyzing players?

    -Focusing on stats that a player can control is crucial because it provides an accurate representation of the athlete's performance. If a stat relies on the rest of the team's performance, it is not a true measure of the individual player's abilities or efforts.

  • How can the FIP statistic be applied at different levels of baseball analysis?

    -FIP can be applied at different levels by manipulating the constant to match the specific league or level of play. This allows for a consistent and fair comparison of pitchers' performances across various contexts.

  • What are some examples of excellent, great, and above-average FIP ranges in 2019?

    -In 2019, excellent FIP ranges included pitchers like Scherzer, Greinke, and deGrom. Great FIP ranges included pitchers like Cingrani, Guard, and Patrick Corbin. Above-average FIP ranges included pitchers like Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks.

  • How does the video aim to change the way viewers look at baseball statistics?

    -The video aims to change the way viewers look at baseball statistics by introducing them to sabermetric statistics like FIP, which focus on individual player performance rather than team performance. It encourages viewers to analyze players based on their individual control and abilities, rather than relying on mainstream statistics that may not accurately reflect a player's contribution.

Outlines
00:00
📊 Evaluating Pitchers: Beyond Traditional Stats

This paragraph introduces the topic of evaluating pitchers using statistics beyond the traditional ones like wins and losses, which are influenced by factors outside the pitcher's control. It sets the stage for discussing the flaws in commonly used pitching statistics and introduces the Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as a more accurate measure of a pitcher's performance.

05:01
🚫 Critique of Popular Pitching Metrics

The paragraph critiques popular pitching metrics such as Earned Run Average (ERA) and Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP), highlighting how they incorporate elements like defense and luck, which are beyond the pitcher's control. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on statistics that a player can control and introduces FIP as a solution.

Mindmap
Keywords
💡FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
FIP is a pitching statistic that aims to measure a pitcher's performance based on only the aspects they can control, such as home runs, walks, and strikeouts. It is considered a more accurate representation of a pitcher's skill because it excludes external factors like the defense's performance. In the video, FIP is highlighted as the best pitching statistic because it adheres to the golden rule of focusing on controllable elements of a player's performance.
💡Wins and Losses
Wins and losses are traditional statistics given to a pitcher based on the outcome of the game. However, this statistic is flawed because it includes factors outside the pitcher's control, such as the performance of their team's offense. The video criticizes this stat for not accurately reflecting a pitcher's skill or contribution due to its dependence on team performance.
💡ERA (Earned Run Average)
ERA is a statistic that calculates the average number of earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings pitched. The issue with ERA is that it includes the defense's performance in its calculation, making it less reliable as a measure of a pitcher's skill. The video emphasizes that ERA can be influenced by factors like the defense's ability to stop runs, which is not within the pitcher's control.
💡WHIP (Walks Plus Hits per Inning Pitched)
WHIP is a measure of how often a pitcher allows a baserunner, calculated by adding walks and hits and dividing by innings pitched. While it is a commonly used statistic, it still relies on hits, which can be influenced by the defense's performance. The video suggests that WHIP is a step in the right direction but not entirely accurate because it can reflect poor defensive play as well as the pitcher's performance.
💡Golden Rule
The golden rule discussed in the video is a principle for analyzing players, which emphasizes focusing on aspects that a player can control. This rule is crucial when evaluating a player's performance, as it ensures that the statistics used accurately represent the player's skill without being influenced by external factors like the team's overall performance.
💡Stuff
In the context of the video, 'stuff' refers to the qualities or attributes of a pitcher that are within their control over a long period of time, such as their ability to strike out batters and limit walks. It is a term used to describe the inherent talent and skill of a pitcher, which can be evaluated through statistics like strikeouts per 9 and walks per 9.
💡Expected FIP (xFIP or eFIP)
Expected FIP, also known as xFIP or eFIP, is a variation of the FIP statistic that adjusts for home runs by replacing them with the number of fly balls a pitcher allows multiplied by the league's average home run to fly ball ratio. This adjustment eliminates external factors like park and weather conditions, making the statistic more reliable and in line with the golden rule of focusing on controllable aspects.
💡FIP Constant
The FIP constant is a value used to scale the FIP statistic to the same level as ERA, allowing for easier comparison between the two metrics. It is calculated using league totals instead of an individual player's totals and provides a benchmark that can be applied at any level of analysis, from major leagues to local games.
💡Sabremetrics
Sabremetrics is the empirical analysis of baseball, using statistical methods to evaluate and understand the game's aspects more deeply. The video focuses on certain sabermetric statistics, such as FIP, to provide a more accurate and individual-focused way of analyzing baseball players, particularly pitchers.
💡Controllable Performance Factors
Controllable performance factors refer to the elements of a player's game that are within their direct control, such as the ability to strike out batters or avoid walks. The video emphasizes the importance of focusing on these factors when evaluating a pitcher, as they provide a more accurate reflection of the player's skill and contribution to the game.
Highlights

The video discusses the best statistic for evaluating pitchers, addressing the flaws in commonly used statistics.

Wins and losses are criticized for being influenced by factors outside of the pitcher's control, such as the team's hitting performance.

Earned Run Average (ERA) is questioned because it includes the defense's ability to stop runs, which can vary.

WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched) is a step in the right direction but still relies on hits, which can be affected by the defense.

Strikeouts per 9 and walks per 9 are useful stats but still don't fully isolate the pitcher's performance from defensive influence.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is introduced as the best pitching statistic because it isolates the pitcher's performance from the defense.

FIP's calculation factors include home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts per innings pitched, focusing on elements within the pitcher's control.

Expected FIP (xFIP) adjusts for home runs by using the league's average home run to fly ball ratio, further eliminating external factors.

The FIP constant is used to standardize FIP on the same scale as ERA, making it easier to compare across different levels of play.

The video emphasizes the importance of focusing on stats that a player can control, which is the golden rule for player analysis.

主流统计数据因为依赖于球队的整体表现而不能准确反映投手的个人表现。

FIP通过排除防守因素，更准确地评估投手的表现，使其成为一个有价值的统计指标。

视频提供了如何根据FIP常数对FIP进行调整，以便在不同水平的比赛中使用。

通过FIP的应用，可以更公正地评估投手的表现，不受防守质量的影响。

视频最后提供了2019年FIP排名的概览，包括优秀和伟大的投手类别。

视频的目标是改变人们对棒球的看法，通过新的统计视角来正确分析比赛。

鼓励观众分享视频，以传播这种新的棒球分析方法。

Transcripts

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Pitcher EvaluationFIP StatisticBaseball AnalyticsWins and LossesEarned Run AverageWHIP CalculationStrikeouts & WalksSabermetricsPlayer ControlDefensive Influence