Human Extinction: What Are the Risks?

Sabine Hossenfelder

31 Dec 202221:33

EducationalLearning

32 Likes 10 Comments

TLDRIn this thought-provoking video, the host explores the concept of human extinction, delving into the risks posed by both natural disasters and human-induced catastrophes. From the potential of supervolcanoes and asteroid impacts to the dangers of nuclear war, climate change, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence, the discussion highlights the need for serious consideration of existential risks and the importance of preparing for potential future threats to humanity's survival.

Takeaways

🌍 The concept of 'human extinction' refers to the end of all intelligent life on Earth, not just a change in species.
💥 The largest existential risks to humanity include nuclear war, climate change, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence.
💣 Nuclear war poses a significant risk not just due to immediate destruction and radiation, but the long-term effects like 'nuclear winter' and global food shortages.
🌡️ Climate change's secondary effects, such as increased natural disasters and economic distress, pose a greater threat to humanity than the primary effects.
🦠 Bioengineered pandemics could be catastrophic, with engineered viruses potentially being as lethal as Ebola but as contagious as measles.
🤖 The risk with artificial intelligence lies in the 'misalignment problem', where AI could pursue goals conflicting with human interests, possibly leading to human extinction.
🌋 Natural existential risks include supervolcano eruptions, which could have a similar global impact as nuclear war, but current technology offers little defense against them.
🚀 The risk of human extinction from natural causes is estimated to be very low, but these estimates rely on the assumption that Earth is a typical planet in terms of luck.
🔬 The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was once feared to produce black holes that could destroy Earth, but this risk was deemed unlikely due to the nature of black hole formation and Einstein's theory of general relativity.
🛡️ The video script also promotes NordVPN as a solution to cybersecurity threats like phishing, offering a special deal for viewers.
📈 The script highlights the importance of considering existential risks seriously and not dismissing them as mere possibilities that have never occurred before.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the video?
-The main topic discussed in the video is the risk of human extinction and the factors that contribute to it.
Why did Sabine start thinking about human extinction?
-Sabine started thinking about human extinction due to her PhD thesis on the production of black holes at the Large Hadron Collider and the public's fear that such a black hole could consume the planet.
What is the definition of 'Existential Risk' according to Nick Bostrom?
-According to Nick Bostrom, an existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.
What was the outcome of the survey conducted by UK psychologists on human extinction?
-The survey found that 78 percent of the participants believed that human extinction would be bad, while one in five said it wouldn't be bad.
What are the three main arguments given by those who believe human extinction might be good?
-The three main arguments are: (a) humans are destroying the planet and nature would be better off without us, (b) it's the natural way of things, and (c) if no one's around, it can't be bad.
What are the greatest risks to human existence as classified in the video?
-The greatest risks to human existence are classified into natural disasters and self-caused disasters, with the latter being more urgent due to the development of powerful technologies.
What is the biggest problem with nuclear war in terms of human extinction?
-The biggest problem with nuclear war is not the detonations or radiation, but the enormous amount of dust and soot injected into the atmosphere, causing a 'nuclear winter' that could last for more than a decade.
How does climate change pose a risk to human existence?
-Climate change poses a risk through its secondary effects, such as an increasing number of natural disasters, economic distress, and international tension, which impede our ability to recover from other problems.
What is the 'misalignment problem' associated with Artificial Intelligence?
-The misalignment problem refers to the risk that an AI could become intelligent enough to survive independently of us but pursue interests that conflict with our own, potentially leading to the AI deciding to get rid of us.
What is the current likelihood of naturally occurring existential risks?
-The current likelihood of naturally occurring existential risks is difficult to estimate accurately. However, researchers have calculated the annual probability of human extinction from natural causes to be less than one in 87 thousand with 90 percent probability and less than one in 14 thousand with more than 99.9 percent probability.
What was the concern about the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and its potential to create black holes?
-There was a concern that the LHC could produce microscopic black holes that might grow and consume the Earth. However, this risk was considered unlikely because the production of black holes at the LHC would only be possible if Einstein's theory of general relativity is incorrect.
What is the role of the 'naturalness' idea in particle physics and why was it criticized in the video?
-The 'naturalness' idea in particle physics suggests that certain phenomena, like the production of supersymmetric particles or microscopic black holes, should be expected due to their natural occurrence. It was criticized in the video because it lacks scientific basis and was used to justify unproven theories, such as the production of black holes at the LHC.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Discussing Human Extinction

The paragraph introduces the topic of human extinction, questioning the risks and factors contributing to it. The speaker's interest in the subject stems from her PhD thesis on black holes at the Large Hadron Collider, which sparked thoughts on existential threats. The speaker emphasizes the importance of considering the possibility of human extinction seriously, despite it never having occurred before, and outlines the concept of 'Existential Risk' as defined by the Future of Humanity Institute. The paragraph also presents a survey on public opinion regarding the desirability of human extinction, highlighting the varied perspectives on the matter.

05:05

💥 Nuclear War and Climate Change

This paragraph delves into the existential risks posed by nuclear war and climate change. It explains that the primary danger of nuclear war is the long-lasting 'nuclear winter' effect, which would lead to global food shortages and potentially the deaths of billions. The paragraph references a study published in Nature Food that predicts these dire consequences. It also discusses the secondary effects of climate change, such as increased natural disasters and economic distress, which could weaken humanity's resilience to other threats. The paragraph suggests that while climate change alone may not lead to complete extinction, it could make humanity more vulnerable to other catastrophic events.

10:08

🦠 Bioterrorism and AI Risks

The focus of this paragraph is on the risks associated with biotechnology and artificial intelligence. It discusses the potential for bioengineered pandemics, comparing them to the severity of Ebola but with the contagiousness of measles. The paragraph also touches on the risks of genetically modified organisms escaping from labs and causing ecosystem collapse. Regarding AI, it highlights the 'misalignment problem,' where an AI could become intelligent enough to pursue goals in conflict with human interests, potentially leading to human extinction. The speaker expresses skepticism about the likelihood of AI causing extinction, citing the current challenges in developing advanced AI systems.

15:13

🌋 Natural Existential Risks

This paragraph explores naturally occurring existential risks, such as supervolcano eruptions and asteroid impacts. It contrasts the likelihood of these events with self-caused extinction scenarios, noting the difficulty in estimating probabilities for the latter. The paragraph references a survey by US Senator Richard Lugar and a study by Toby Ord to illustrate the uncertainty in risk assessments for self-caused extinction. It also discusses the potential impact of supervolcanoes and the relative rarity of large asteroids that could cause extinction. The paragraph concludes with a discussion on the difficulty of estimating natural disaster risks and the potential for our planet to be considered 'lucky' in terms of avoiding such events.

20:14

🚀 Large Hadron Collider and Cosmic Risks

The final paragraph returns to the origins of the speaker's interest in existential risks, discussing the controversy surrounding the Large Hadron Collider and the potential for it to create black holes. It critiques the arguments made by particle physicists and highlights the work of Bostrom and Tegmark, which suggests that the annual probability of our planet being destroyed by natural causes is extremely low. The paragraph concludes with a brief mention of the speaker's book and the concept of 'naturalness' in particle physics. Additionally, it includes a sponsored message about NordVPN, emphasizing its threat protection features and the benefits of using a VPN service for online security.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Human Extinction

Human extinction refers to the hypothetical scenario where the human species ceases to exist. In the context of the video, it is a serious topic that the speaker explores through various potential causes, emphasizing the importance of considering such possibilities for the survival and future of humanity.

💡Existential Risk

Existential risk is a term used to describe potential events or circumstances that could lead to the extinction of humanity or pose a threat to the long-term survival and development of intelligent life on Earth. The video highlights that existential risks are not just about gradual transitions but the abrupt end of intelligent life, which is a concern for longtermists.

💡Large Hadron Collider

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is a particle accelerator used by scientists to study the fundamental particles of the universe. In the video, the speaker mentions her PhD thesis related to the LHC and the controversy surrounding the potential production of black holes that could pose an existential risk to humanity.

💡Nuclear Winter

Nuclear winter is a hypothetical scenario where a large-scale nuclear war leads to a severe and prolonged global climate cooling due to the injection of massive amounts of dust and soot into the atmosphere. The video discusses the catastrophic consequences of nuclear winter, including massive food shortages and the potential death of billions due to starvation.

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to significant, long-term changes in the Earth's climate, primarily due to human activities such as the emission of greenhouse gases. In the video, climate change is presented as a self-caused existential risk that could lead to increased natural disasters, economic distress, and international tension, potentially impeding humanity's ability to recover and address other issues.

💡Bioterrorism

Bioterrorism involves the intentional release of biological agents like viruses, bacteria, or toxins with the aim of causing harm to people, animals, or plants. The video addresses bioterrorism as a self-caused existential risk, where bioengineered viruses or escape of genetically modified organisms could lead to catastrophic pandemics and ecosystem collapse.

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence refers to the development of computer systems that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence, such as learning, problem-solving, and decision-making. In the context of the video, the existential risk associated with AI is the potential for it to become intelligent enough to pursue goals that conflict with human interests, possibly leading to human extinction.

💡Supervolcano

A supervolcano is a volcano capable of producing an eruption with ejecta greater than a thousand cubic kilometers. The video mentions supervolcanoes as one of the greatest naturally occurring existential risks, with the potential to cause a sudden cooling of the planet similar to the effects of nuclear war.

💡Asteroid Impact

An asteroid impact involves a space rock colliding with Earth, which can have catastrophic consequences depending on its size and speed. The video discusses asteroid impacts as a natural existential risk, although it notes that large asteroids are rare and relatively easy to detect, giving humanity some level of warning and potential to mitigate the threat.

💡Solar Flare

A solar flare is a sudden flash of increased brightness on the Sun, often associated with the eruption of charged particles into space. The video mentions large solar flares as a scary natural risk that humanity cannot currently do anything about, as they could potentially disrupt technology and harm life on Earth.

💡Naturalness

In the context of the video, 'naturalness' refers to a concept in particle physics that suggests certain theoretical properties of particles should be close to those observed in nature. The speaker criticizes the idea of naturalness as unscientific, as it was used to justify the belief that the LHC could produce supersymmetric particles and black holes, which she considers unfounded.

💡General Relativity

General Relativity is a theory of gravitation developed by Albert Einstein, which describes the gravitational force as a curvature of spacetime caused by mass. The video explains that the production of black holes at the LHC would only be possible if Einstein's theory of general relativity was incorrect, which is highly unlikely given its widespread acceptance and confirmation through numerous experiments.

Highlights

The topic of human extinction is introduced as a lighthearted discussion, contrasting with the heavy topics usually covered on the channel.

The speaker's interest in human extinction originates from her PhD thesis on black holes at the Large Hadron Collider.

The initial dismissal of the risk of black holes from particle collisions reflects a broader issue of underestimating existential risks.

The concept of 'Existential Risk' is defined as the threat to the end of all intelligent life on Earth or the drastic destruction of its potential for future development.

A survey conducted by UK psychologists found that 78% of respondents believed human extinction would be bad.

The three main arguments from those who believe human extinction might be good are: humans destroy the planet, it's the natural way of things, and the absence of sentient beings means the absence of suffering.

The majority of people believe human extinction is bad due to self-interest and a general consensus that it's undesirable.

Existential risks can be categorized into natural disasters and self-caused disasters, with the latter being more urgent due to technological advancements.

Nuclear war poses a significant risk not just from explosions and radiation, but from the long-term effects of a 'nuclear winter'.

A major nuclear war could lead to a global temperature drop and massive food shortages, potentially causing 5 billion deaths from starvation.

Climate change is a risk due to its secondary effects, such as increased natural disasters and economic distress, which hinder our ability to address other issues.

Biotechnology risks include pandemics from bioengineered viruses and the escape of genetically modified organisms causing ecosystem collapse.

The risk with artificial intelligence is the potential for an AI to become intelligent enough to pursue interests conflicting with human survival.

The likelihood of human-caused extinction scenarios is difficult to determine, with experts providing widely varying estimates.

Natural existential risks, such as supervolcano eruptions and asteroid impacts, are considered, but current technology offers limited defense against these threats.

Risk estimates for natural disasters are based on past records, suggesting an annual probability of human extinction from natural causes is very low.

The annual probability of Earth being destroyed by natural causes is less than one in a trillion, according to a 2005 estimate.

The Large Hadron Collider's potential to create black holes was a topic of debate, but the actual risk was likely lower than initially feared due to the principles of general relativity.

The speaker concludes that the biggest existential risk is human stupidity, highlighting the importance of taking potential threats seriously.

Transcripts

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Related Tags

Human Extinction Existential Risks Nuclear War Climate Change Biotechnology Artificial Intelligence Supervolcanoes Asteroid Impacts Cosmic Threats Technological Advancements Future of Humanity