(Geo)Politics of the Balkans: the Revenge of History

The speaker introduces Book Yeremich, a prominent figure known for his roles as Serbia's Foreign Minister, the first Serbian President of the UN General Assembly, and a candidate for the UN Secretary-General. Yeremich is also recognized as an intellectual and the founder of the People's Party, a center-right political party in Serbia. The introduction sets the stage for Yeremich's lecture on the geopolitics of the Balkans, emphasizing his unique perspective and experience in international relations and his potential insights into the region's complex history and current affairs.

The paragraph delves into the fundamental forces that shape geopolitics, specifically focusing on the Balkans. It discusses the importance of geography, history, culture, and religion in understanding the region's complexity. The speaker highlights the Balkans' strategic significance throughout history, as a crossroads for trade, military, and cultural exchanges between Europe and the Middle East. The paragraph also touches on the historical conflicts and power struggles that have defined the region, setting the stage for a deeper analysis of its geopolitical landscape.

This section provides an overview of the historical conflicts in the Balkans, particularly focusing on the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. It discusses the impact of global affairs on the region and the illusion of the 'end of history' following the Cold War. The speaker reflects on the consequences of the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo in 2008, which they view as a significant mistake with long-term negative effects on peace and stability in the region. The paragraph also addresses the geopolitical implications of the European Union's expansion and the challenges it faces, including the changing outlook towards enlargement.

The speaker addresses the current state of democracy and governance in Serbia, expressing concern over the country's institutional, democratic, and human rights situation. They criticize the current administration's handling of the economy and corruption issues, and suggest that Serbia's governance is a significant burden on finding efficient solutions to the country's challenges. The paragraph also touches on the influence of Serbia's governance on the broader Western Balkans region and the international community's response to it.

This paragraph discusses the difficult situation faced by the Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo, including the challenges related to property rights, security, and the preservation of holy sites. The speaker highlights the increase in hate crimes and incidents against the Serbian community in Kosovo, as well as the failure to implement decisions by Kosovo's Supreme Court regarding land returns to the Church. The paragraph underscores the precarious position of the Serbian Orthodox Church and the broader Serbian community in the region.

The speaker vehemently opposes the European Union's proposed plan for Kosovo, arguing that it is unacceptable for Serbia as it would lead to Pristina's accession to the United Nations. They express concern that this could trigger a new season of tragedy in the Balkans, potentially leading to the creation of a 'Greater Albania,' which they believe would destabilize the region further. The speaker emphasizes that recognizing Kosovo's independence would be a grave mistake, validating past injustices against the Serbian people.

The paragraph explores the connection between national identity, the Orthodox Church, and the political landscape in Serbia and the Balkans. It discusses the historical and cultural significance of the Kosovo myth and its impact on Serbian national identity. The speaker also addresses the issue of Republic Srpska and the potential implications of its possible integration with Serbia, cautioning against any changes to existing borders that could lead to instability and conflict.

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of peaceful coexistence and mutual understanding in the Balkans, particularly in relation to the complex situation in Kosovo. They advocate for finding ways to live together without crossing each other's red lines and for focusing on economic cooperation and people-to-people relationships that transcend political differences. The speaker also discusses the precedent set by Kosovo's declaration of independence and its potential implications for the region's future.

The speaker highlights the economic challenges faced by the Western Balkans, particularly the lack of a clear European strategy for the region. They argue that the focus should be on practical economic development, including infrastructure, decarbonization, energy systems, and transportation. The paragraph suggests that such an approach would not only create jobs and improve governance but also attract foreign investment and foster a more prosperous and stable region.

This paragraph reflects on the state of democracy in Serbia, with a focus on the country's electoral processes and the influence of its leadership. The speaker contrasts the situation in Serbia with that in Slovakia, noting the lack of free and fair elections and the absence of balanced media representation in Serbia. They express hope for the future, suggesting that Serbia may eventually converge with countries like Slovakia that have successfully navigated difficult times.

The speaker discusses the concept of a geopolitical recession, drawing parallels with economic cycles and emphasizing the long-lasting nature of such periods in geopolitics. They express concern over the current state of international relations, suggesting that the world may be moving towards a new Cold War. The paragraph calls for a focus on areas of common interest, such as climate change, to build trust and cooperation among nations, while acknowledging the challenges of achieving consensus on issues related to national security.

In the final paragraph, the speaker reflects on the historical role of small nations like Serbia in the context of great power politics. They describe the need for countries in the Balkans to navigate their relationships with major powers as a means of survival, emphasizing the importance of respecting geography, history, and each other. The speaker acknowledges the complexity of this balancing act and the challenges it presents for the future of the region.