What Everyone Needs to Know about Russia Under Putin - FPRI's 2018 Champagne Brunch for Partners

The speaker begins by highlighting the growth of the Eurasia Program at FPRI, initially managed by Adrian Basara and John Haynes, and now led by the next generation including Maya Otarashvili. The program encompasses various initiatives such as the Baltic Initiative, publications on Russian foreign policy and economy, and a daily briefing. The speaker introduces Stephen Cotkin, a 2018 fellow, who is a professor at Princeton University and has recently published a book on Stalin's life. The audience is told to expect a talk on Russia under Putin rather than Stalin.

The speaker delves into Russia's historical aspirations to be a 'special country' or a 'providential power' with a unique mission, despite never being the world's greatest power. This has led to a consistent gap between aspirations and capabilities, resulting in state-led modernization efforts that produce economic spurts followed by stagnation. The speaker also discusses the pattern of personalistic rule in Russia, which often conflates national interests with the survival of the regime, leading to the current state of relations with the West.

The speaker explains the fundamental clash of interests and values between the U.S. and Russia, with the U.S. aiming to prevent any country from dominating its region, while Russia's grand strategy is to dominate Eurasia. He also touches on the historical difficulty of maintaining good relations between the two nations, emphasizing the need for better management of tensions rather than wishful thinking about friendly relations.

Despite Russia's economic weakness, it remains a major power with a formidable military-industrial complex capable of producing world-class weaponry. The speaker points out the paradoxes of Russia's state, which includes both kleptocratic elements and highly competent institutions like its central bank and finance ministry. Russia's unique geographical position also provides it with a platform for influence projection.

The speaker discusses the historical pattern of Russia relying on the state to push for economic modernization, which results in a cycle of growth followed by stagnation. This pattern also leads to personalistic rule rather than a strong state, with personal rule being less effective than it appears, as evidenced by the low implementation rate of Putin's orders.

The speaker addresses the paradox of the U.S. valuing limited government domestically but sometimes overlooking this principle in foreign policy. He suggests a foreign policy that respects the principle of limited government internationally, advocating for a balance of power and strong alliances rather than unilateral dominance.

The speaker emphasizes the complexity of managing relations with Russia, acknowledging the need for a combination of strength and negotiation. He criticizes approaches that are either overly aggressive without a clear strategy or solely focused on negotiation without leverage. The speaker calls for a balanced approach that recognizes Russia's capabilities and the need for stable, long-term foreign policy.

The speaker discusses the issue of Crimea, which Russia annexed in violation of international law. He suggests a potential policy approach that involves recognizing Russia's annexation over a long period, during which Russia would have to meet certain conditions, such as withdrawing from other occupied territories and changing its behavior in Syria.

In conclusion, the speaker outlines the need for a clear and realistic Russia policy that understands the fundamental differences between the U.S. and Russia but also recognizes the potential for managing these differences. He emphasizes the importance of showing strength intelligently and using diplomacy to negotiate concessions from Russia.

The speaker wraps up his talk with a Q&A session, addressing questions about the effectiveness of Russia's advanced weapon systems and the U.S. commitment to Ukraine's territorial sovereignty. He also discusses the absurdity of the collusion narrative and the reality of Russia's intelligence operation, which compromised the Trump campaign.

The speaker compares the current situation to the Versailles Treaty, arguing that the 1991 settlement was imposed on a weakened Russia and is now being challenged as Russia regains strength. He suggests that the U.S. should lead in stabilizing the process by extracting advantages rather than clinging to an outdated agreement.

The speaker elaborates on the nature of the Russian intelligence operation, which aimed to penetrate and compromise the Trump campaign. He dismisses the idea of collusion as a legal concept and instead describes the campaign's entanglement in compromising situations, potentially subjecting them to blackmail.

The speaker points out that the investigation into Trump's business operations for money laundering could be a significant issue, as the business was involved in selling overpriced real estate, which often involves illicit money. He suggests that this aspect of the investigation is overshadowing the original counterintelligence problem.

The speaker concludes with thanks to the event organizers and mentions an upcoming lecture by Professor McDougall on American identity and character, which will explore the ideas of the nation's founders.