Beyond assists | Passing, shot creation & offensive load (NBA Stats 101, Part 4)

Thinking Basketball
30 Sept 201912:32
EducationalLearning
32 Likes 10 Comments

TLDRThe video script delves into the complexities of measuring playmaking in basketball beyond the traditional assist metric. It introduces 'box creation' as a way to estimate open shots created by forcing help defenders to react. The script also discusses 'offensive load' to gauge a player's involvement in the offense, 'passer rating' to assess passing ability, and the importance of balancing scoring and passing threats. It highlights how advanced stats can provide more nuanced insights into a player's contribution to their team's offense, emphasizing the need for a contextualized approach to truly understand playmaking.

Takeaways
  • 🏀 Traditionally, assists are used to measure playmaking in basketball, but they don't capture the full picture of a player's contribution to creating shots for teammates.
  • 🎯 Some assists are the result of exceptional passes that lead to easy baskets, while others are basic and come from players already in motion or with open shots, highlighting the inequality in the value of assists.
  • 📊 The concept of 'box creation' was introduced as a box score measurement to estimate the number of open shots a player creates by forcing help defenders to react, providing a more nuanced view of shot creation.
  • 🔢 Rajon Rondo was used as an example to illustrate the difference between high assist totals and lower shot creation totals, showing that not all players who rack up assists are creating scoring opportunities for their teammates.
  • 📈 The combination of box stats needed to estimate shot creation revealed insights into offensive success, suggesting that effective playmakers balance their scoring threat with their ability to pass.
  • 🏆 'Offensive load' was introduced as a stat to estimate a player's involvement in the offense, extending the concept of usage rate to include both scoring and playmaking components.
  • 🤔 The traditional usage rate, which measures scoring attempts and turnovers, was critiqued for not including a playmaking component, whereas offensive load fills this gap.
  • 📝 'Passer rating' was introduced as a metric to estimate passing ability, relying on box score data to detect relationships between assists and a player's role in the offense, as well as the quality of passes made.
  • 🔄 Passer rating and offensive load together allow for a more comprehensive understanding of a player's on-ball and off-ball playmaking contributions, beyond what can be gleaned from assists alone.
  • 👥 At the team level, box creation has a moderate correlation with offensive rating, indicating that teams with strong shot creators tend to have better offenses.
  • 📊 The importance of differentiating between the types of turnovers and assists was emphasized, as they have different impacts on a team's offensive efficiency and strategy.
Q & A

  • What is the traditional way of measuring playmaking in basketball?

    -The traditional way of measuring playmaking in basketball is by looking at assists.

  • Why are not all assists considered equal in evaluating playmaking?

    -Not all assists are equal because some are incredible passes that could be finished by nearly anyone, while others come off idle passes where the receiver does most of the work.

  • What is the difference between basic assists and the assists created by a player like Rajon Rondo during the Doc Rivers Celtics years?

    -Basic assists are often the result of simple passes to skilled players like Ray Allen or Kevin Garnett who then make long jumpers. In contrast, assists created by Rajon Rondo involved more complex plays, often forcing defenders to react, creating better shot opportunities for teammates.

  • Why is it important to consider the value of the shot created by a player, even if it doesn't directly lead to an assist?

    -It's important because creating shots for teammates can significantly impact the game, even if it doesn't show up in the box score. This is part of a player's overall contribution to the team's offensive success.

  • What is 'box creation' and how does it estimate shot creation?

    -'Box creation' is a box score measurement of shots created, which estimates the number of open shots a player creates for teammates by forcing help defenders to react.

  • How does the combination of box stats help in understanding a player's offensive success?

    -The right combination of box stats can reveal insights about offensive success, such as the balance between a player's threat to score and their threat to pass, which is crucial for effective playmaking.

  • What is 'offensive load' and how does it differ from traditional usage rate?

    -Offensive load estimates how involved a player is in the offense, incorporating both scoring volume and playmaking volume. It differs from traditional usage rate, which measures scoring attempts and turnovers but doesn't include a playmaking component.

  • What is an 'opportunistic pass' and how does it contribute to a player's playmaking ability?

    -An opportunistic pass is a pass that takes advantage of a momentary opening in the defense, often created by the player's actions. It contributes to a player's playmaking ability by facilitating additional passes and creating scoring opportunities.

  • How is 'passer rating' calculated and what does it measure?

    -Passer rating is calculated by analyzing a player's successful and missed passes, particularly those that lead to high-quality scoring opportunities like layups. It measures a player's passing ability on a scale of 1 to 10.

  • How do the concepts of 'box creation' and 'passer rating' apply at the team level?

    -At the team level, 'box creation' has a moderately strong relationship with offensive rating, indicating that teams with stronger creators tend to have better offenses. 'Passer rating' has a weaker direct correlation to team success, as team passing often depends on the connective tissue that exploits the advantages created by star players.

  • What is the significance of the turnover paradox mentioned in the script?

    -The turnover paradox refers to the idea that higher turnovers can sometimes be associated with better offensive play. For example, Jason Kidd, despite having a higher turnover rate than Stephon Marbury, contributed to a better offense by making high-leverage passes that put teammates in optimal scoring positions.

Outlines
00:00
🏀 Beyond Assists: Measuring Playmaking in Basketball

This paragraph discusses the limitations of using assists as the sole metric for evaluating playmaking in basketball. It introduces the concept that not all assists are equal and highlights the difference between basic assists and those that create high-quality scoring opportunities. The speaker shares their curiosity about the impact players have on creating shot opportunities for their teammates, leading them to develop a metric called 'box creation'. This metric estimates the number of open shots created by forcing help defenders to react. The paragraph also touches on the balance needed between a player's scoring threat and their ability to pass, using examples from players like Rajon Rondo and Kobe Bryant. It concludes by emphasizing the importance of finding the right balance in playmaking, as stated by Oscar Robertson.

05:00
📊 Advanced Metrics: Box Creation, Passer Rating, and Offensive Load

The second paragraph delves into advanced basketball metrics that provide a more nuanced understanding of a player's contribution to their team's offense. It explains 'box creation' as a way to estimate the number of open shots created and introduces 'offensive load' as a measure of a player's overall involvement in the offense. The paragraph also discusses the concept of 'opportunistic passes' and how they contribute to creating shot opportunities. A new metric called 'passer rating' is introduced, which estimates a player's passing ability based on traditional stats like assists and the quality of passes made. The speaker also explains how these metrics can be used at the team level to understand the relationship between shot creation, passing ability, and overall offensive success. The paragraph concludes by noting the limitations of traditional assist-to-turnover ratios and the importance of considering the context of turnovers.

10:01
🤔 The Turnover Paradox and the Value of High-Leverage Passes

In this paragraph, the discussion shifts to the concept of the 'turnover paradox', which challenges the traditional view that lower turnover rates are always better for a team's offense. The speaker uses the example of Jason Kidd replacing Stephon Marbury to illustrate how a higher turnover player can actually contribute more to a team's offensive success by making high-leverage passes. The paragraph explains that while turnovers can be a natural byproduct of aggressive passing, they can also lead to better scoring opportunities for teammates. It also touches on the importance of 'offensive load' as a more comprehensive metric that includes both scoring and playmaking components. The paragraph concludes by emphasizing the need to consider the context and value of turnovers and the potential of advanced metrics to provide a clearer picture of a player's overall value to their team's offense.

Mindmap
Keywords
💡Playmaking
Playmaking in basketball refers to the ability of a player to create scoring opportunities for themselves or their teammates. It is central to the video's theme as it discusses how traditional statistics like assists may not fully capture a player's impact on creating shots. The script uses examples such as Rajon Rondo's basic assists versus Kobe Bryant's shot creation through drawing double teams to illustrate the nuances of playmaking.
💡Assists
Assists are a traditional basketball statistic that records the number of times a player passes the ball to a teammate who scores. The video points out that not all assists are equal in terms of their contribution to shot creation, suggesting that some are more impactful than others. For instance, a simple pass to a skilled player in motion may not be as significant as a pass that results from a player drawing a double team.
💡Shot Creation
Shot creation is the concept of generating open or high-quality shot opportunities for teammates by manipulating the defense. The video introduces 'box creation' as a metric to estimate how often players create these opportunities. It is a key concept as it expands the understanding of playmaking beyond just assists and highlights the importance of forcing help defenders to react.
💡Box Creation
Box creation is a term coined in the script to represent a box score measurement of shots created. It is an estimate of the number of open shots a player creates for teammates by compelling help defenders to respond. The script explains that box creation can be used to differentiate between players like Rondo, who may have high assist totals but lower shot creation totals, and those who balance scoring threats with passing.
💡Offensive Load
Offensive load is a statistic introduced in the script to estimate a player's involvement in the offense. It builds upon the concept of usage rate by including scoring attempts, turnovers, and a fraction of a player's assists. The video uses offensive load to discuss how certain players may have a small load but are strong extra passers, indicating their importance in the offensive flow.
💡Usage Rate
Usage rate is a metric used to measure a player's percentage of team plays used while they are on the floor. The video critiques traditional usage rate for focusing on scoring attempts and turnovers without accounting for playmaking turnovers. It then contrasts this with offensive load, which includes a playmaking component.
💡Opportunistic Passes
Opportunistic passes are passes that take advantage of a defense's momentary lapse or misalignment to create a scoring opportunity. The script explains that these passes are part of playmaking volume in the offensive load statistic and are distinct from traditional assists, as they may not directly lead to a score but set up the opportunity.
💡Passer Rating
Passer rating is a metric created in the script to estimate a player's passing ability. It is based on the number of passes a player makes and misses, as well as the quality of those passes, such as how many lead to layups. The video uses passer rating to highlight the difference between players who are great at creating shots through passing versus those who may not be as effective.
💡Turnovers
Turnovers are a statistic that counts the number of times a team loses possession of the ball due to errors such as missed passes or offensive fouls. The video argues that not all turnovers are detrimental, as some can be the result of high-leverage passes that create scoring opportunities. It challenges the traditional view of turnovers as purely negative.
💡Assist-to-Turnover Ratio
The assist-to-turnover ratio is a statistic that compares the number of assists a player makes to the number of turnovers they commit. The video suggests that this ratio can be misleading because it does not account for the context and value of the passes and turnovers. It implies that a higher turnover rate can sometimes be associated with better offensive play.
💡Offensive Rating
Offensive rating is a team statistic that measures the number of points scored per 100 possessions. The script discusses how box creation has a moderately strong relationship with offensive rating, indicating that teams with better shot creators tend to have better offenses. It contrasts this with passer rating, which has a weaker direct correlation to team success.
Highlights

The classical approach to measuring playmaking in basketball is through assists, but this doesn't capture the full picture.

Not all assists are equal; some are basic passes while others are incredible plays that create opportunities.

Rajon Rondo's assists during the Doc Rivers Celtics years often came from basic passes to skilled players.

Kobe Bryant's assists often involved creating shots for teammates by forcing defenses to react to his scoring threat.

Shots created that don't directly lead to assists are still valuable and can be measured through 'box creation'.

Box creation is an estimate of the number of open shots created by forcing help defenders to react.

Rondo led the league in the difference between his assist totals and his shot creation totals.

Players who don't threaten defenses with their scoring have high assists but low creation totals.

Scoring threats with low assist totals typically aren't creating many shots for teammates.

Balance between threat to score and threat to pass is key to effective playmaking.

Offensive load was developed as a more informative version of usage rate, incorporating playmaking volume.

Opportunistic passes are those that exploit openings in the defense and contribute to shot creation.

Passer rating is a metric created to estimate passing ability based on traditional stats and the quality of assists.

Passer rating can overrate taller conservative guards and underrate big volume scorers.

Box creation has a moderately strong relationship with offensive rating at the team level.

Assist-to-turnover ratio is not a perfect proxy for passing efficiency due to the variety of turnovers and their impacts.

Turnovers can be a natural byproduct of high-leverage passes and can indicate better offensive play.

Offensive load provides a more complete picture of a player's involvement in the offense, combining scoring and playmaking.

Transcripts

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Basketball PlaymakingAssists AnalysisShot CreationPassing SkillsOffensive StrategyStatistical MetricsPlayer ImpactTeam DynamicsAdvanced StatsOffensive Load